Friday May 4 RASP

[Ginny Farnsworth]

A brief look at the RASP (Thanks Andy) for tomorrow, Friday, looks pretty good to me. Has anyone else taken a look at it yet?

What are your thoughts, pilots?

Please sign me up for a tow on Friday. I'll be there by noon. It's a rare Friday off for me.

[Peter Kelly]

A brief look at the RASP (Thanks Andy) for tomorrow, Friday, looks pretty good to me. Has anyone else taken a look at it yet?

What are your thoughts, pilots?

Please sign me up for a tow on Friday. I'll be there by noon. It's a rare Friday off for me.

I have looked only at the UNISYS Nam model -
And, I conclude that it does look good for tomorrow - Friday- at the lower levels, except for the possibility of lots of high Cirrus.
Jet is overhead, we're at the south end of a trof, low is to the north of us.
It's difficult to predict cirrus - especially more than 24 hrs in advance.
I hope the cirrus doesn't show.

[KurtPelto]

Peter,
Which model features do you look at that are predictive of cirrus and high clouds?

[Sergio Colacevich]

I am going to fly tomorrow Friday. Postfrontal, instability, satellite picture with typical cloud scatter, clean air, no cirrus, cumulus in the valley.....not something to miss. Valley cus 5000 at 11 AM, 6000 at 2 PM, 7000 at 5 PM. Besides, Sat and Sun too windy. Cirrus Sat.

If something above is not true, the faulty forecast has to be blamed not me - I am only the messenger....

Sergio

[lashcraft]

Me too...and hope to get an early start.

Luke

[Peter Kelly]

Peter,
Which model features do you look at that are predictive of cirrus and high clouds?

I have never found a model that is predictive Kurt.

It depends on moisture content of the upper air.
Sergio took a look tonight at the sat images for tomorrow - they are best.
Look for the moisture.
Of course, there are no sat images that will have much meaning 24 hours or more in advance.
As I said in my analysis on Thursday morning - we are are at the south end of a trof, low will be to the north of us, jet is overhead.....

[Peter Kelly]

I have now looked at the RASP and BLIP for tomorrow
The sounding - found on the RASP page for wsc at 10/11 AM shows cloud cover



The BLIP for 10/11AM shows clouds, but clear at 1300/1400 hours

[RamyYanetz]

The NAM total cloud cover is the most reliable indicator for cirrus. It shows no cirrus for Friday http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/ETA/CANV...t.curr.21z.png
When cirrus are predicted there will be large area of white, not just a narrow band over the mountains as it is showing now.
I agree with Ginny, it is looking good for cu in the valley and mountains, but not as high as Sergio is predicting, at least not in the valley. 4-5K at the most.
So we have 3 different forecasts using different sources (and interpretation) will be interesting to find which one was the closest...

Ramy

[Peter Kelly]

No Ramy, we do not have three different fcsts
Here is the moisture image as of a few minutes ago.
This is simply the latest info


As Ginny pointed out initially, Friday looks like good post frontal, AND it meets with calendar model ( "I have Friday off").

I merely raised the concern that hi cirrus is often a problem in this type of pressure pattern system, with no info researched regarding hi level moisture.

Kurt asked about a model, but there is none, IMHO, that is reliable more than 24 hours out.
Last night Sergio looked at the moisture and that was the answer - less than 24 hours - and it is hasn't changed.
I provided info last night about the BLIP cloud cover images to show the confirmation of Sergios's findings.
Looks like a good day - a bit windy, but tomorrow will be more wind- according to TV.

RASP will be out in a few minutes.

I'll take a tow.

[Peter Kelly]

OOO KaaaaY
OK!
The RASP is available.
What a great day we have fcst for today.

BLIP continues to confirm no cirrus later today.

Real nice convergence line on RASP.

Maybe south to Bessa and then north into the Mendos?

Sounding is very promising over Williams



I better get driving to the gliderport!