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Thread: Wave Watch: Dec 29

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Been watching a NE wave day setup for a few days for Sat Dec 29:

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    As often happens, the target day forecast wanders some because of the cutoff low, or "back slide slider low" per Doug Armstrong. These are "small" weather features, sometimes only a few hundred miles across, so are easily pushed around or disappear entirely. Therefore the forecast for when and where they go also varies more than usual.

    The offshore flow looks very good, and could run into Sunday also.

    Stack ranking the 6 other NE wave XC days that I've flown since 2013, from best to worst by setup and flight:
    Nov 22, 2013 (Pat-Duo): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-%28Thu-Fri%29
    Dec 4, 2017 (Russ Ramy JC Rnd Vly): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-wind-wave-day
    Feb 22, 2015 (TomB-'30): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...event%29/page2

    Not easterly enough for working the Mendos north, but good for Napa/Marin waves:
    Oct 7, 2018 (SF #3-Ramy): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...t-2018-WX-wave
    Apr 30, 2016 (SF #1-JZ): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...atch-Sun-May-1
    Mar 31, 2017 (SF #2-Russ, JC): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...8SF-mission%29

    This coming Saturday looks very similar to Dec 4, 2017, perhaps slightly better due to closer alignment of the 500mb & lower winds. Mission is to tag Arcata and confirm the Castro Valley wave. It will be cold, so be prepared. Will post more as we get closer.
    Last edited by Kempton; 12-23-2018 at 07:35 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Awesome! thanks Kempton

  3. #3
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    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    As of this morning's forecast, now all day Friday, Saturday AND Sunday look to be NE wind wave. This is an unusual setup, to have wave for 3 days straight. I'll need wingmen & wing women for our XC flight on Saturday. John C? Pat? Luke? Ramy is offline 8^(

    On another note, the reason I'm aiming for Castro Valley, is that to comfortably fly around the Bay Area, I need more lift spots in the northern half of SFO Class B airspace than Novato and Mt Diablo. Last year on March 17, 2017, I saw this rotor cloud from the Dumbarton bridge that looked to be over Castro Valley, supported by the charts that day of a N wind:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    And on my first SF overflight, there was wave over Oakland that supported us. Plus on NE wind day, the Panoche forecast shows wave in the lee of the East Bay hills. If we don't find anything, we head to the Diablo wave while still above Class B.
    Last edited by Kempton; 12-23-2018 at 07:24 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    BB watching and listening too! Sounds fun

  5. #5
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    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Well, the setup changed enough to make Friday the best day, good not great:
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    with Saturday good for a morning Goat wave, done by noon or so. Friday looks consistent all day:
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ID:	4968 Fri 10a, 500mb Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	4969 Fri 5p 500mb

    so I still plan to go as far N as possible towards Arcata, then the Bay Area. Stack ranking v. the other N winds days, I'd say this is 5 out of 6. If you can fly Fri, it will be excellent for practice to go from Goat to St. Helena and back to WSC. If you do Saturday, launch early, 8a, as the very light winds at 18K, 30 knots, will not sustain the wave for long.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  6. #6
    Join Date
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    Location
    San Carlos
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    48

    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Kemp. I just looker at the RASP and now Thursday looks more ompressive than Friday. What's your assessment?

  7. #7
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    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Yes, Thu is better from a lift standpoint, but:
    - The NNW winds at 18k are 75kts v. 50kts or less on Fri, so, that'll be very costly on the upwind run, and
    - I can only fly on Fri/Sat 8^)
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Location
    San Carlos
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    48

    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Understood. I will fly on Friday. Does anyone want to team fly the Goat to Saint Helena and return run with me? I am planning on a noon launch.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Unfortunately I can't fl Fri, so won't be joining the party.
    Fri looks good, but with asterisks. The lift strength is only 1-2 knots on the RASP. The winds are nicely NE at ridgetop, but back to 360 degrees as you go up.
    Sat does not look very good to me. the wind is NE at ridgetop, but then gets weaker as you go up. As Kempton said, it gets worse as the day goes on.
    John BB

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Santa Rosa
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    220

    Re: Wave Watch: Dec 29

    Kempton and Danny 12800 MSL in the Goat wave 0947 PST

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