Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

[Kempton]

Late spring conditions continue and this Saturday is a great example. A light front passes Friday eve, leaving behind enough moisture and instability for what looks to be a long distance Saturday:
700mb Jun29

I plan to attempt a 1000K triangle as the Buckhorn late cu are my hope for a late return (6p Skysight):


Lots of people off to Parowan or Nationals, so shouldn’t be crowded. If this forecast comes to pass, and this has held for a week now, we’ll be very lucky as many factors come together:

• Light post-frontal unstable air, just enough to destabilize the air and keep a high cloudbase,
• Light winds, 10 kts or less
• Long days, only a week after the summer solstice, so still max solar energy
• No cirrus forecast (from Skysight)
• Reasonably early start (11a)
• Lift on course late in the day (>6p)
• And on a Saturday!

For most everyone, it should be a straightforward day to run to the OR border and return. Or a good VSA race day. Plan to be there!

[Kempton]

48 hours out, and there's noticeable differences in the models. Skysight is more pessimistic on clouds, while RASP is looking good:
4p

Similar to a couple weeks ago, so like any logical, data driven analyst, I'm ignoring the data that isn't in my favor! Besides, the RASP historically is pretty accurate. 8^P
I think the NAM is the data for the RASP, so this greater cu is supported by the 700mb showing good humidity Sat afternoon:

[Kempton]

Overall, there's drier air moving in, hence the forecast clouds are shriveling up 8^0
So the thinking now is pretty much a long O&R, like Crater Lake or beyond. Time and scheduling are sunk, so we're going to fly regardless.
11a 3p 6p

[Kempton]

From Alex's friend Evan, 6:45a cu in the Trinity's.

[John Sinclair]

From Alex's friend Evan, 6:45a cu in the Trinity's.

At 3:18, Kemp was 60 n/e of Crater Lake at 11,600, doing 103 mph!
GO FNX

[Peter Kelly]

From
.... WSC

to
...NE of Crater Lake ....

AND... he made it home again.


Great flying Kempton

[Kempton]

Thank you all, it was quite the flight. The first 1000K OLC flight from WSC:
https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....Id=-1496176580

10.2 hours total time, amazing. More writeup and pics in a couple days as I fly with Sterling tmro, and we're a bit tired. Don't want to subject a newly soloed pilot to this kind of flight....

[Garykemp]

Thank you all, it was quite the flight. The first 1000K OLC flight from WSC:
https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....Id=-1496176580

10.2 hours total time, amazing. More writeup and pics in a couple days as I fly with Sterling tmro, and we're a bit tired. Don't want to subject a newly soloed pilot to this kind of flight....

Great flight, I followed you all day, albeit from my armchair.


The real "kemp" NK

[RamyYanetz]

Incredible! I am speechless! I am chasing 1000km flights at Parowan and Ely mostly getting 500km while you pulling a 1000km from the Bay Area! And Alex gets to fly a 1000km on his first year flying XC in gliders.

congratulations!

Ramy

[MiltonHare]

Congratulations Kempton!

No one deserves to bag the first 1000K triangle from Williams more than you!

Awesome.