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Thread: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

  1. #1
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    Jan 2011
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    Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Late spring conditions continue and this Saturday is a great example. A light front passes Friday eve, leaving behind enough moisture and instability for what looks to be a long distance Saturday:
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ID:	5243 700mb Jun29

    I plan to attempt a 1000K triangle as the Buckhorn late cu are my hope for a late return (6p Skysight):
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Lots of people off to Parowan or Nationals, so shouldn’t be crowded. If this forecast comes to pass, and this has held for a week now, we’ll be very lucky as many factors come together:

    • Light post-frontal unstable air, just enough to destabilize the air and keep a high cloudbase,
    • Light winds, 10 kts or less
    • Long days, only a week after the summer solstice, so still max solar energy
    • No cirrus forecast (from Skysight)
    • Reasonably early start (11a)
    • Lift on course late in the day (>6p)
    • And on a Saturday!

    For most everyone, it should be a straightforward day to run to the OR border and return. Or a good VSA race day. Plan to be there!
    Last edited by Kempton; 06-25-2019 at 02:30 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    48 hours out, and there's noticeable differences in the models. Skysight is more pessimistic on clouds, while RASP is looking good:
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ID:	5251 4p Click image for larger version. 

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    Similar to a couple weeks ago, so like any logical, data driven analyst, I'm ignoring the data that isn't in my favor! Besides, the RASP historically is pretty accurate. 8^P
    I think the NAM is the data for the RASP, so this greater cu is supported by the 700mb showing good humidity Sat afternoon:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Overall, there's drier air moving in, hence the forecast clouds are shriveling up 8^0
    So the thinking now is pretty much a long O&R, like Crater Lake or beyond. Time and scheduling are sunk, so we're going to fly regardless.
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    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5257 From Alex's friend Evan, 6:45a cu in the Trinity's.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
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    Placerville, CA
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Trinity cu 645a.jpg 
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ID:	5257 From Alex's friend Evan, 6:45a cu in the Trinity's.
    At 3:18, Kemp was 60 n/e of Crater Lake at 11,600, doing 103 mph!
    GO FNX

  6. #6
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    Schleicher ASW-24
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29


    From
    .... WSC

    to
    ...NE of Crater Lake ....

    AND... he made it home again.


    Great flying Kempton


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    Peter Kelly

  7. #7
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Thank you all, it was quite the flight. The first 1000K OLC flight from WSC:
    https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....Id=-1496176580

    10.2 hours total time, amazing. More writeup and pics in a couple days as I fly with Sterling tmro, and we're a bit tired. Don't want to subject a newly soloed pilot to this kind of flight....
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
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    San Tan Valley, AZ
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    Thank you all, it was quite the flight. The first 1000K OLC flight from WSC:
    https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....Id=-1496176580

    10.2 hours total time, amazing. More writeup and pics in a couple days as I fly with Sterling tmro, and we're a bit tired. Don't want to subject a newly soloed pilot to this kind of flight....
    Great flight, I followed you all day, albeit from my armchair.


    The real "kemp" NK

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Incredible! I am speechless! I am chasing 1000km flights at Parowan and Ely mostly getting 500km while you pulling a 1000km from the Bay Area! And Alex gets to fly a 1000km on his first year flying XC in gliders.

    congratulations!

    Ramy

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    14

    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat June 29

    Congratulations Kempton!

    No one deserves to bag the first 1000K triangle from Williams more than you!

    Awesome.

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