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Thread: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

  1. #1
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    Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    A front looks to pass Fri eve, leaving what looks like a spring like post frontal day:
    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5339 700mb RH 4p
    and SkySight also showing a valley day:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    FNX plans to fly, just not sure the task.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Looks like it could be a very good valley day. Not sure about flying deep into the Sierras with the wind and low bases though.

    Ramy

  3. #3
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Looking good for Friday, but as Ramy says, there will be some wind. In fact, there may be morning wave, see the 700mb at 11a:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    and down low, the shearline looks to be influenced by the wave forecast also:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    but it may be too moist to discern these clouds amongst the others, or there is no gap to define them.
    I've not seen a setup like this, a front passage of strong moisture in August, so we'll have to see what really happens.

    But it looks like you can soar early:
    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5344 11a Cu base

    and stay up late, 6p Cu base:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    A decent sized group is showing up: Ray, Pete, Andy, myself, Luke and perhaps a couple others. See you at the airport!
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Andy, the RASP forecast is not refreshing for Saturday, can you restart the server pls? I sent you a PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    Andy, the RASP forecast is not refreshing for Saturday, can you restart the server pls? I sent you a PM.
    All six runs went through. Of course, that doesn't mean everything ran correctly. Basically, it is what it is. But, I'll try re-running it and see what happens. It might just fall under the heading of "sh*t happens".

  6. #6
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Ok, thx! Will look for tontines run.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  7. #7
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    The re-run failed too. The error is in the WRF processing due to an oddity in the input data. This happens occasionally. Sometimes it works OK on the next run and sometimes it's persistent and has to go through all three days before the day with the bad data is past us. We'll find out tonight.

  8. #8
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    RASP all happy now!

    Thanks Andy!
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  9. #9
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    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Very impressive ground skimming flight by Kempton to near the coast on Saturday, together with Brent. Looking forward for the write up.

    Ramy

  10. #10
    Join Date
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    619

    Re: Thermal Alert: Sat Aug 10, & VSA Race Day

    Brent wrote an excellent post about this flight but from some reason was on the NCSA blog and not shared here. I am sure Williams folks would like to read about this unusual flight as well. Here it is:
    http://ncsa-buzzard.blogspot.com/201...ton-izuno.html

    Ramy

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