Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 13

Thread: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    6 days out, no Skysight yet, but the forecast does show an upper level cutoff low right offshore of Northern Cal:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb Aug8 156.png 
Views:	122 
Size:	105.8 KB 
ID:	5353700mb 156 hour for Saturday

    So chances for some clouds are good, with cooler ground temps. Will watch.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    Wed update. Looking good for Sat & Sun!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb Sep7 084.png 
Views:	83 
Size:	123.9 KB 
ID:	5356 700mb Sat

    I'm always happy when the major factor (a upper level low) comes back into the forecast to bring clouds for the weekend:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Sat Sept 7 Skysight 3p cu.jpg 
Views:	89 
Size:	158.4 KB 
ID:	5357 Skysight 3p Saturday

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Sun Sept 8 Skysight 3p cu.jpg 
Views:	79 
Size:	152.7 KB 
ID:	5358 Skysight 3p Sunday

    Final confirmation is RASP on Thu eve. Anyone else flying?
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    622

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    I assume we talking September 7/8.
    Williams RASP is out and it is looking sweet.
    If the forecast holds I’ll be flying, possibly both days this weekend.

    Ramy

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    Whups, yes, I mean this weekend, Sept 7-8! Dang, can't change the title now....
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    230

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    I'm going to fly Saturday if the forecast holds.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    622

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    Latest forecast looks much drier, so I may skip.

    Ramy

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    This morning's RASP shows Sat looking good from 2p to 6p:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	WSC RASP Sept 7 cu 2p.png 
Views:	77 
Size:	33.2 KB 
ID:	53592p cu Click image for larger version. 

Name:	WSC RASP Sept 7 cu 6p.png 
Views:	80 
Size:	31.4 KB 
ID:	53606p cu

    Sunday starts later with slightly lower bases:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	WSC RASP Sept 8 cu noon.png 
Views:	76 
Size:	34.1 KB 
ID:	5361Noon Click image for larger version. 

Name:	WSC RASP Sept 8 cu 6p.png 
Views:	55 
Size:	32.6 KB 
ID:	53626p
    with strong winds aloft and more shearline action.

    Re: Ramy's comment, I've noticed a mild tendency for the evening RASP runs to not be as accurate as the morning RASP runs, FYI. Not a big diff, but enough to be noticed.
    Of course, now that I said that, watch out!
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    TFRs for fires on the Mendos:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	TFRs Sept 6.jpg 
Views:	67 
Size:	364.8 KB 
ID:	5363 up to 9.5K, left one, and 8K for the right one.

    but the winds favor clear air on the Mendos, pushing the smoke into Redding and NE on Sat:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	WSC RASP Sept 7 wind 2p.png 
Views:	80 
Size:	56.4 KB 
ID:	53642p Sat
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    300

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    I'm likely to fly out of Truckee sat, as my glider is there. Company is always fun. Looks good if a bit windy.
    John Cochrane BB

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,107

    Re: Race Day wknd Sept 5-6 WX

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    This morning's RASP shows Sat looking good from...
    .... ong winds aloft and more shearline action.

    Re: Ramy's comment, I've noticed a mild tendency for the evening RASP runs to not be as accurate as the morning RASP runs, FYI. Not a big diff, but enough to be noticed.
    Of course, now that I said that, watch out!
    Just to be clear (IMHO) about the accuracy of the RASP forecast. The Accuracy does not depend on whether it is an evening run or a morning run of the model. What matters is how far away is the valid time of the forecast. For example, a three day fcst will usually be less accurate than one that is two days in advance of the valid time, and a one day will be more accurate than a two day, etc..

    I'm posting an extensive post flight report of my flight from Saturday 9/7/19, for training purposes, on another thread.
    Peter Kelly

Similar Threads

  1. VSA Race Day # 14 - Sat., Sept. 21, 2019
    By admin2 in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 09-18-2019, 11:31 AM
  2. VSA Race Day # 13 - Sat., Sept. 7, 2019
    By cjknowles in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 09-06-2019, 09:12 AM
  3. VSA Race Day # 9 - Sat., Sept. 9th
    By cjknowles in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 09-09-2017, 11:47 PM
  4. RSVP info - VSA Race Day 5 - Saturday, Sept. 21st
    By cjknowles in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-18-2013, 08:19 PM
  5. Race Day - Sept 8
    By Peter Kelly in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 09-07-2012, 07:17 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •