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Thread: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

  1. #1
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    Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    Looking at windy.com it appears the potential is in the forecast for some wave flying in a NNE wind.

    We'll need Kempton's analysis to see which areas we can expect to be the most productive based on various wind directions. The ridge of high pressure pattern is currently forecasted to be consistent from high altitude down to the surface. That being the case the wind direction should not vary too much from low to high altitude.

    See previous postings by Kempton, some of which are:

    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...t-2018-WX-wave

    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-wave-hotspots

    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...e-Watch-Dec-29
    with a quote from the Dec 29 posting:

    Stack ranking the 6 other NE wave XC days that I've flown since 2013, from best to worst by setup and flight:
    Nov 22, 2013 (Pat-Duo): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-%28Thu-Fri%29
    Dec 4, 2017 (Russ Ramy JC Rnd Vly): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-wind-wave-day
    Feb 22, 2015 (TomB-'30): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...event%29/page2

    Not easterly enough for working the Mendos north, but good for Napa/Marin waves:
    Oct 7, 2018 (SF #3-Ramy): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...t-2018-WX-wave
    Apr 30, 2016 (SF #1-JZ): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...atch-Sun-May-1
    Mar 31, 2017 (SF #2-Russ, JC): https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...8SF-mission%29
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    250 mb - that is FL340
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    500 mb - that is FL180
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    700 mb 10,000 ft
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    850 mb 5,000 ft
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    Editing complete (for now) at 9:05 AM.
    Peter Kelly

  2. #2
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    Thanks Peter for starting the post on this. Alas, as of this mornings GFS update, the setup has completely disappeared! It may re-appear in a couple days, so we'll watch. If it does come to pass, it could be super for a wave flight up to Crescent City or so, and down to Napa.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    Thanks Peter for starting the post on this. Alas, as of this mornings GFS update, the setup has completely disappeared! It may re-appear in a couple days, so we'll watch. If it does come to pass, it could be super for a wave flight up to Crescent City or so, and down to Napa.
    Tough for us to predict a week ahead when the models don’t even agree, but that’s normal. Thanks for looking at this.

    i failed to provide full disclosure on the opening post. Those windy.com screen captures were done at 8 AM on Monday, a week prior to the 12 noon images for 10/28 and I was using the European Model. Historically the GFS does a comparatively poor job of predicting data more than five days into the future. Statistics bear that out...

    I expect the jet stream will alter course significantly between now and next Monday. It would be unusual for the jet to continue to be making a 180 degree turn north to south off the pacific coast - as was forecasted in yesterday’s depiction. The low pressure areas surrounding the jet are predicted to be poorly formed and relatively weak.

    As of 7AM today, Tuesday, comparing GFS to European model for next Monday at noon....



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    Last edited by Peter Kelly; 10-22-2019 at 11:26 AM.
    Peter Kelly

  4. #4
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    Yup, will continue to monitor, that setup looked soooooo good 8^(
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    As of tues pm, the ECWMF shows best wave sun PM. But the GFS shows absolutely nothing...
    John Cochrane BB

  6. #6
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    Currenltly it seems to be moving towards sunday afternoon -- good news for the employed!

    Overall, there is basic ensemble model agreement that there is a
    chance for another significant wind event late Saturday
    night/early Sunday morning through early Monday as another
    shortwave trough is expected to slide through the Great Basin
    region as ridging builds over the eastern Pacific. This would
    result in another round of fire weather concerns. Current model
    runs are in slightly better agreement than previous runs, though
    the differences will determine the significance of this event.

    The ECMWF ensemble is forecasting an extreme wind event as it
    digs a positively tilted shortwave well into interior Northern
    California. If the event trends toward this solution, this could
    produce the highest winds of the season to this point and critical
    fire weather concern combined with the persistent dry conditions.
    The GEFS solution is much less extreme, though it is still
    forecasting another north wind event. The latest runs also have a
    positively tilted shortwave though it only digs as far west as
    Nevada. Current forecast highlights a blend of the two with winds
    15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, locally up to 45 mph
    over wind prone areas and ridgetops.

  7. #7
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    Each day I examine the fcst for Monday, 10/28, on windy.com
    I view the various altitudes from the top of the troposphere (30 or 34,000 ft) down to the surface. I read the discussion page...

    Link to the NOAA/ National weather service “Discussion” page from the San Francisco office....

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forec...AFDMTR&wfo=MTR

    I considered capturing (and posting here to the forum) the images I see each day as we close in on my target day of next Monday. But, as of this morning (Thursday) it appears that next Monday is no longer a viable flying day for mountain wave.



    Last edited by Peter Kelly; 10-24-2019 at 11:52 AM.
    Peter Kelly

  8. #8
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    As of Thu Oct 24, it does look like Sunday, Oct 27 is an offshore wave day, with possibly strong ground winds in the morning. The setup is only good from morning thru sunset, and is not working before or after then. The risk in that short of a time window is that it actually doesn't happen since things need to line up just right. Further, the winds are not aligned completely:
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    But Skysight is looking good, telling me that the lower level flow which is almost directly across the ridge, is generating the wave even tho the upper level winds are slightly westerly:

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    and later in the day (3p)
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    It will be breezy tho, super high fire danger, with ridgeline winds of 40 kts, easing in the afternoon with the core shifting south:
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    Thanks to Peter K and John C for keeping the interest going, I had ignored it until this morning. This reminds me of when Tom Bjork and I flew a few years ago, the forecast was in & out of wave until 3 days before. I'm not committing to flying this yet, let's see how this evening's RASP looks.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  9. #9
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    This setup is looking closest to Feb 23, 2015, the Tom Bjork flight mentioned earlier:
    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...event%29/page2

    with less moisture.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  10. #10
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    Re: Mountain Wave flying on Monday 10/28

    As of Sat morn, the charts looks great, however ground winds could preclude towing with Sun morn ground winds of 19-20 kts. FNX will prep to be ready.

    WSC RASP charts show strong wave across the Mendos, such that extending the northeast reach of previous flights (May 10) is possible past Hoopa:
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    and the Bay area has strong wave also:
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    We shall see.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

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