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Thread: May 30-31, regardless....

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    May 29-31 Looking Good

    Too far out to say what the wx will be, but I plan to do my BFR on that Fri, then fly Sat & Sun. So I'll do wx outlooks, even if it's crappy 'cause I'm committed to be there!
    Last edited by Kempton; 05-23-2020 at 08:27 AM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: May 29-31 Looking Good

    As of this morning, a week out, a Friday cutoff low brings post frontal conditions to the Mendos next weekend:

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    With moist (but not too moist) unstable air, lower pressure aloft and near solstice heating, it looks to be a really nice soaring weekend. Key point: The lower pressure aloft and unstable air is likely to bring very early cu that do not overdevelop, and run late.

    Notably, Thursday May 28 is forecast for 109F peak high! That far exceeds the previous high of 102F. This is the cutoff low drawing desert air westward, also making the Great Basin have 20k cloudbases in May! Incredible:
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    We're still a week away, so things will change some, but it's headed in the right direction. Will update Monday.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
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    Marin
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    following...

  4. #4
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    Tracking to forecast:
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    From Skysight: Friday dry with some high cu on Yolla, 13.5k., Saturday a valley day starting early, drying out as the day goes, some S wind. Looking good!
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
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    Schleicher ASW-24
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    Looking forward to your comments Kempton, as we draw closer to the weekend.
    I plan to fly on Sunday - taking my son on a flight.

    The 7 day norcal RASP is not operational today - for some reason.
    I've captured a few images (as of Monday night 5/25 at 8 pm local) from Windy.com - each is for sunday at 10 am, using the European model.

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    From these five charts I have concluded the following for the goat area:

    • Sfc wind light from NE
    • 5,000ft about the same as the sfc - but disregard the iso lines, as they only apply to the surface,
    • 14,000 ft wind is from the SW and over 10 kts but flow is strong south of us
    • 14,000 ft the humidity is high in N Calif but it is drier down south (FYI the 24,000 level indicates moisture, thus... cirrus)
    • freezing level is 14,000 over SBA santa Barbara, but it warms up overhead as the day progresses.
    Peter Kelly

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    Watching on skysight for the long range forecast, cloudiness appears to be a problem on all three days. Look at the forecast soundings for the best idea. Sat PM looks least troubled so far. Though high cloud forecasts are often unreliable.

    John Cochrane

  7. #7
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    Good catch John C, and indeed Skysight shows high cloud cover (33-65k ft) a concern on Sunday:
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ID:	5689 and somewhat less on Friday: Click image for larger version. 

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    with the Friday RASP showing a very good day:
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    Saturday is a valley day:
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ID:	5692 just a bit breezy on the ground: Click image for larger version. 

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    And the 700mb for all 3 days:
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ID:	5694 Friday Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5696 Sunday
    It looks like the high cloud cover on Sunday is from the messy blob of moisture coming ashore, but Skysight shows a good day. We'll see wha the Sunday RASP says tmro...
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    I'm still on the Sunday schedule.
    Four quick RASP charts tell the story - we can always dream - i hope this fcs holds....


    • Cu Bases well above 10,000 ft
    • Convergence line over the peaks



    Click image for larger version. 

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    • Vertical Velocity at 10,000 shows line of lift along the spine and
    • the wind parallel shows a high speed cruise running from peak to peak of strong lift! I can't say I have ever such a depiction like this on RASP.



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    Peter Kelly

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Menlo Park CA
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    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    Alas, I think the mendos will be in cloud. However, Sunday looks like a very nice, uncomplicated valley day with cu all over at 5 - 6 k.
    John Cochrane BB

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    571

    Re: May 30-31, regardless....

    Due to the fantastic turnout of reservations for tows Sunday, we will be most likely limiting tow distances to 3 Sisters or Walker ridge which seems to align with BBs forecast

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