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Thread: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

  1. #1
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    Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Possibly a nice mix of factors are coming together for this coming weekend. We may see very high cloud bases on the Mendos Friday and Saturday, will update more as we get closer.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    This period is looking quite good:

    Friday Jun 19
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ID:	5724700mb RH Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5725850mb heating Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5726500mb no upper level high

    Sat Jun 20 (Summer Solstice)
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ID:	5727 . Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5729

    Sun Jun 21 (Father's Day)
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ID:	5730. Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5731 . Click image for larger version. 

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    the period has:
    - The longest day of the year = max solar heating & time of flight
    - Above ave temps, so perhaps later start, but higher bases,
    - No systems coming thru so likely no cirrus = max solar heating
    - Increasing moisture, but not excessive,
    - No wind meaning <10kts at 11k (700mb)= max distance

    Next update Tue morning. Could be a boomer...
    Last edited by Kempton; 06-14-2020 at 02:18 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Following...

  4. #4
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Following... in many senses of the word given my evident inability to show up at Williams early enough in the morning for the Kempton adventure!

  5. #5
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    This morning's update shows things drying out 8^( and as well the thermal heights are not super. Skysight tends to undercall the cu, so as always, the WSC RASP is the trusted forecast, so for Saturday we won't have a run until tmro (Wed) eve....

    Also, the Sunday moisture forecast from this morning's GFS shows more moisture that is not shown in the Skysight runs.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  6. #6
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Currently Friday looking the best, with better heights and cu to mark the transition to the Shasta/trinity area. Sat good but 1000' lower. Thursday has convergence along the Napa-Ukiah line. As Kempton says, wait for the RASP...
    John Cochrane

  7. #7
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    As of last night's RASP run, Saturday looks spectacular:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base RASP Jun20 69hr .png 
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ID:	57332p Cu bases
    Let's see how the morning run goes, but this looks like a super day, starting early:
    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	573411a cu bases
    and going late:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base RASP 6p Jun20 73hr .png 
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ID:	57356p cu bases, with a possible late shearline. Only catch are the winds picking up during the day:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	BL Ave wind RASP 6p Jun20 73hr .png 
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ID:	57366p winds, BL average.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    This mornings RASP shows a bit less high based cu, but still very nice:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base RASP 2p Jun20 57hr .png 
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ID:	5737however, the W wind picks up during the day, esp. on the N end of the Mendos, sp plan accodingly:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	BL Ave wind RASP 4p Jun20 59hr .png 
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ID:	5738
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  9. #9
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Saturday looks like a classic summer williams day to me. The convergence lines up beautifully going north to Shasta. Stay on the eastern most mountains, hayfork and trinity do not look good. Getting home gets a little dicey as things wash out around 3:00- 4:00 up north. There is a Kempton-Ramy possibility: the convergence blows off the hills and crosses the valley 5 pm, forecast with cu. If that comes to pass, you could go around the horn, come back on the Sierra, and then cross over where the convergence is. Or, land out where it isn't!
    John Cochrane

  10. #10
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    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    I'm planning to fly on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how it all works out...
    Pete Alexander -- 98

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