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Thread: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

  1. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    228

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    A closer look at the forecast raises some uncertainties. All the soundings show a lapse rate somewhat steeper than adiabatic, so the dashed lifted parcel line runs in to the straight part of the lapse rate before it hits the capping inversion. The BL top heights are at that point. So, if you look at BL top heights it's pretty depressing. In some places the capping inversion is 1000' or more higher which looks more plausible. In these conditions super strong thermals will keep going up to the capping inversion, so you can get higher than the BL top suggests. Still, it's 8000' at best at goat, and a little lower at Black Butte. The run to Yolla peak will be the usual scraping up the foothills, which is also where the convergence line is. Yolla peak is the key for going further. BL top is 11, but the capping inversion is more like 12. So, that depends on your tastes for pushing north at what altitudes.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    228

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    New RASP just came in, not much different. Maybe an inch lower here and there. It would take some courage to push past T 16, and hope to get home.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    San Jose, CA
    Posts
    246

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    John ~ You have a great courage maker behind you...

    This day looks very similar to a day about 12 days ago. Since, soaring is going to occur today, I'm leaving the comfort of my pool and heading to Williams.
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,057

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Today is simply "Classic WSC"

    A great day to fly!

    Those of us who have been watching forecasts have seen the day evolve for the last five days, and if we planned our schedule properly we will be rewarded with a great flight.

    This year, June 20th is the longest day of the year, instability, moisture levels, pressure patterns are all what you would want for a classic soaring day. Lift is in all the right places.

    Tow to tree farm, glide to T-16, with an occasional thermal along the way, and return home again.
    There are few challenging bad spots along the way. Today is a perfect day for those of limited cross country experience to simply go out and enjoy a great cross country flight.

    Happy Soaring
    Peter Kelly

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    580

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Looks similar to yesterday, and yesterday Matt (A5) had an easy cruise to the Trinities and back above 12K.
    If you considered flying, you should not talk yourself out of it. Didn’t someone says those who wait for better forecast miss the best days?
    Me? I am on my way to Nephi to start my soaring safari, otherwise would have give it a try.

    Ramy

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,057

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Nice day to fly today. It was in fact a "standard kind of day". I've done it dozens if not hundreds of times, but it never gets old. Had my son PJ aboard doing most of the flying. Enjoyed leisurely flight up to T-16 and home again, following the lift. Had several strong climbs, with the best one topping out at 12,000 over Yolla Peak. Enjoyed the company of Pete-98 enroute, and observed him making better choices than we did looking for the convergence/ lift line as we crossed Alder Springs southbound. Our flight is on OLC.

    Ramy, with regards to your going to "Nephi to start ... soaring safari"
    What places are you going to and how long will you be on the road?
    Peter Kelly

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    580

    Re: Thermal Outlook: Fri-Sun Jun 19-21 Fathers Day wknd

    Peter, I am already at Nephi, planning to fly here through next weekend and then Ely for another week, and later also Tonopah.

    Ramy

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