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Thread: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    837

    Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    Looking possible for a long flight to the north, note the moisture (light green) each day:
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    A very weak trough passes thru Sat eve. Will monitor this...
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    As of Tuesday, the Fri & Sat outlook shows some high bases, very scattered cu until the OR border. Bases N of Shasta at >15k.
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ID:	5756 2p Cu base Jul 3 Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	5757 2p Cu base Jul 4 Click image for larger version. 

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    Sunday looks to be very dry, but 12-13k thermals on the Mendos.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    588

    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    FNX launched with Kempton and Pablo 10:15 and towed to the vicinity of Stonyford.
    https://share.garmin.com/KemptonIzuno
    11:00am updated -2-3 knot consistant Climbs currently at 9300' northbound
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  4. #4
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    Jan 2011
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    WSC, San Anselmo
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    442

    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    This looks like a wonderful flight - It must have been beautiful! Any details?
    Ginny Farnsworth G3
    Past President
    Valley Soaring Association

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    568

    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    Their flight is on OLC. Very nice flight.
    https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....l?dsId=7925823
    still not too late to edit the start time to the correct release time to get more distance and also so that the altitude trace wouldn’t looks like they flew beyond ground level. All it takes is to click edit within 48 hours, and change the start time so it will match more or less the release time or altitude.

    Ramy

  6. #6
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    Jan 2011
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    837

    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    Thanks Ramy, I didn't read this in time, work got in the way....

    Pablo’s been on board at WSC as an instructor since late last year and logged a lot of hours, but not been further away than Alder Springs. He’d expressed interest in some longer cross-country flights, so he was my co-pilot for Saturday. It was quite the flight, not too often I get excited about blue days, I felt this one to be different, supported by the BLTops. I felt it was a good chance for us to get to the cloud field east of Shasta. Luke flew up on Friday, flying back Saturday. I thought we’d have some company on the way back, but little did I know how on our own we’d be!

    At WSC on Friday morning and took care of some projects on the ship. By afternoon, I could hear Pete, Pat, and others who were not too happy about the conditions. Not a good sign for the next day. However, I was already here, ship was assembled, so my costs were sunk.

    Saturday morning during preflight checks, I noticed the battery voltage is a bit low, 12.9 v 13.2, but don’t really think too much about it, after all I had it on charge all last night. Turns out the charger was faulty, and this would be an issue the whole flight.

    We launch at 10:10a towing to Stonyford and coasting into my usual meadow west of St. John. While I felt we might be a touch too early, lift was good enough to sustain us there and on our track north. On tow, we’re already down to 12.5V, and normally it should be 12.8V, so we turn off the transponder. As the flight progresses we continue to turn off more instruments 8^0.

    Each climb was stronger and higher than the last, so we get to Yolla in reasonable time, but then explore the T-15 Ridge, and it’s absolutely smooth. We retreated to the east side of Yolla with cu shreds taking us to 9500 feet.

    Pablo’s been flying about half the time, doing really well with the big wings. We have a good banter about clouds, next steps, and how to approach the situation ahead.

    We see cu forming at Mt. Eddie/China Peak and perhaps a few miles this way, but it was completely blue from here to there. Arriving on the SE slopes of Buckhorn, we work lift east to Shasta Bolly, the mountain W of Whiskeytown Lake. I’ve had good luck in the past heading straight from there to Mt. Eddie up that ascending range. Safety airport was Benton, so no problem. About halfway to the clouds we got a good climb and quickly we’re over I-5 west of Shasta. Luck holds with an 8kt climb on the SW side of Shasta, which never happens.

    We connect with the cloud street heading ENE along the lava flow and zip along to the edge of the Tule Lake area. It’s now 3p and we decided turn. Bases are a little above 12k, and we have a 10kt headwind on the way back to Shasta. We now get a “low battery” warning on the Tasman, so everything is off except the Tasman and muted that. No problems getting back to Mt. Eddy, then retrace our path back towards Shasta Bolly.

    Shreds of cu form on the east side of Trinity Lake so we headed over there and of course, it dissipates. The sink now averages 2-4kt so we head back east and now because of the forecast I’m biasing my search to the east, almost to Shasta dam. This is outside of where I normally fly, and it feels uncomfortable. The RASP shows convergence running from Reading to west of Red Bluff. Habit tells me to go west, but the forecast says go SE. Hmmmm, go out in the flats, where there is never lift, in a direction away from what you normally do, to something that’s never been proven, with no markers to give you confidence. No problem!

    And…. OMG, just W of Shasta dam, 2-4 kts up to 11k! Amazing! We find another climb NE of Yolla out in the flats near Rancho Tehama back to 11k. It’s at this point we made the strategic mistake of going along the forecast convergence on the east foothills, when we should’ve gone to the cloud on Yolla. We get sustained sink and eventually have to commit to Willows.

    Around this time the battery completely dies, and I’m resorting to texting Rex, Noelle and Ben. Rex comes to the rescue flying up to Willows while we orbit to stay as cool as possible (it’s 100F on the ground). He lands and holds for us at the first taxiway, while we come in for a short landing on 16. We’re not on the ground 5 minutes when we’re off again (but just remember next time to come to a stop with the nose 5 degrees opposite centerline of whichever wing is down….)

    OLC link:
    https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....l?dsId=7925823

    This file is from the flight recorder on Pablo‘s Android, and seems to have noise in the data. As the battery died, and we switched off the Cambridge, there’s no IGC file from there. The FLARM unit for some reason did not record the flight, I was told it was because it did not accept the firmware upgrade, but it looks successful to me. Then my iGlide on my iPhone for some reason also was not recording flights since the beginning of the year, must be a Covid thing. Triple system failure!

    P.S> Sorry, there are no pics, 'cause there wasn't much to see other than the landscape...
    Last edited by Kempton; 07-08-2020 at 06:09 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  7. #7
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    214

    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    Thank you for sharing Kempton. Only photo I snapped was inside a hanger at Siskiyou county (I need a new camera). The thermal at whiskeytown lake and the one next to yolla was the ticket home.
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  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    San Tan Valley, AZ
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    79

    Re: Jul 4-5 Thermal Outlook

    Great flight Kempton, I am amazed at the great weather tools you have today. In comparison, I just kind of bumbled along until I hit lift. I flew that route to and from the trinities a couple of times. Once flying and landing at Siskiyou County and back the next day. I can remember not getting very high coming back.

    "The Real Kemp", NK Gary

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