Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 16

Thread: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    918

    Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    Offshore wind setup, but as usual with these, the cutoff low wanders around, so confidence in this setup isn't high until 2 days beforehand:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb 108 Dec 7.png 
Views:	52 
Size:	206.0 KB 
ID:	6008

    Will track and post...
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    615

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    Monitoring.

    Ramy

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    918

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    ALERT! The NAM run showed the flow suddenly favors Sunday, so sure enough looking at the Williams RASP for Sunday shows 700mb:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	press700.curr.1000lst.d2 Dec 6.png 
Views:	51 
Size:	44.1 KB 
ID:	6009
    Will continue to monitor
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    918

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    Well, back to Monday as the offshore day:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb 084 Dec 7 NAM.png 
Views:	40 
Size:	201.9 KB 
ID:	6011 so once again, the 12Z run rules, even with NAM. I don't know why that is....

    and Saturday's late day wave still looks on:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	press700.curr.1700lst.d2 Dec 5.png 
Views:	37 
Size:	50.2 KB 
ID:	6010
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    289

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    Skysight showing very nice wave for Monday. Best wave from Napa to Calistoga, then up to snow, and maybe a bit further north as well.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    918

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    As expected, the forecast bounces around. Last night the Monday wave looked very weak, but this morning's run is back to reasonable:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	press700.curr.1000lst.d2 Dec 7.png 
Views:	40 
Size:	55.9 KB 
ID:	6012 700mb, 10a.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb 054 Dec 7 NAM.png 
Views:	37 
Size:	191.9 KB 
ID:	6013 700mb 10a

    So right now, FNX is on for a Monday morn launch, Jim Darke as GiBiF (Guy in Back in Front), to twist a military acronym. 8^)
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    289

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    other models stayed on track too.
    https://rasp.nfshost.com
    aviationweather.gov
    skylight.io
    all showing nice strong E winds.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    289

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    Sun AM not looking so good, across williams rasp, norcal rasp, skylight and aviationweather.
    https://aviationweather.gov/windtemp/plot
    shows the setup most clearly. The splotch of high wind has moved just a bit offshore at 12Z, and south and offshore a lot by 18Z. Watch that splotch move around to see if it will work.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    289

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    update. Another view of the problem is seen in the goat and black butte soundings. Mountain top winds are still good, 40 knots. But the upper level winds are much lower, 15-20. Wave needs the upper level winds.
    Kempton, looking to you to inject some optimism in the discussion!
    John

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    918

    Re: Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

    Indeed the winds have backed off a bit, conversely the direction is a touch more E:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb 030 18z Dec 7 NAM.png 
Views:	34 
Size:	184.9 KB 
ID:	6014 700mb 10a

    RASP still showing ok, but not great, with expected cruise band btwn 10-16k:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	press700.curr.1400lst.d2 2p Dec 7 .png 
Views:	41 
Size:	46.8 KB 
ID:	6015

    My concern is any further drop off of winds would likely erode the wave on the N and S ends of the area. We're still on, I just hope it doesn't drop off any more!

    I was, and still concerned, because of the similar sudden drop off in forecast from Dec 30 last year:
    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-Monday-Dec-30

    I compared the forecast and it clearly was weaker then, like 15kt less at 10a 500mb that day vs. tmro's forecast.

    John, I'm still comfortable with a good flight, mostly due to the stronger mid-level (700mb) which has sustained wave in similar situations. But like I said, I hope we don't drop off any more! Are you planning to fly? Ramy is on for either a Byron or WSC launch.
    Last edited by Kempton; 12-06-2020 at 01:26 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

Similar Threads

  1. Wave Watch: Dec 29
    By Kempton in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 01-06-2019, 01:40 PM
  2. Mon Dec 4: Interesting N wind wave day
    By Kempton in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 12-03-2017, 11:13 PM
  3. Wave Watch: Fri Dec 18
    By Kempton in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 12-17-2015, 03:53 PM
  4. Mon/Tue Dec 29/30 wave watch
    By Kempton in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 12-29-2014, 01:33 PM
  5. Wave watch: Dec 19-21
    By Kempton in forum News & Discussion
    Replies: 41
    Last Post: 12-23-2013, 08:27 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •