Wave watch: Mon Dec 7

[Kempton]

Offshore wind setup, but as usual with these, the cutoff low wanders around, so confidence in this setup isn't high until 2 days beforehand:


Will track and post...

[RamyYanetz]

Monitoring.

Ramy

[Kempton]

ALERT! The NAM run showed the flow suddenly favors Sunday, so sure enough looking at the Williams RASP for Sunday shows 700mb:

Will continue to monitor

[Kempton]

Well, back to Monday as the offshore day:
so once again, the 12Z run rules, even with NAM. I don't know why that is....

and Saturday's late day wave still looks on:

[John Cochrane]

Skysight showing very nice wave for Monday. Best wave from Napa to Calistoga, then up to snow, and maybe a bit further north as well.

[Kempton]

As expected, the forecast bounces around. Last night the Monday wave looked very weak, but this morning's run is back to reasonable:
700mb, 10a.
700mb 10a

So right now, FNX is on for a Monday morn launch, Jim Darke as GiBiF (Guy in Back in Front), to twist a military acronym. 8^)

[John Cochrane]

other models stayed on track too.
https://rasp.nfshost.com
aviationweather.gov
skylight.io
all showing nice strong E winds.

[John Cochrane]

Sun AM not looking so good, across williams rasp, norcal rasp, skylight and aviationweather.
https://aviationweather.gov/windtemp/plot
shows the setup most clearly. The splotch of high wind has moved just a bit offshore at 12Z, and south and offshore a lot by 18Z. Watch that splotch move around to see if it will work.

[John Cochrane]

update. Another view of the problem is seen in the goat and black butte soundings. Mountain top winds are still good, 40 knots. But the upper level winds are much lower, 15-20. Wave needs the upper level winds.
Kempton, looking to you to inject some optimism in the discussion!
John

[Kempton]

Indeed the winds have backed off a bit, conversely the direction is a touch more E:
700mb 10a

RASP still showing ok, but not great, with expected cruise band btwn 10-16k:


My concern is any further drop off of winds would likely erode the wave on the N and S ends of the area. We're still on, I just hope it doesn't drop off any more!

I was, and still concerned, because of the similar sudden drop off in forecast from Dec 30 last year:
https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...-Monday-Dec-30

I compared the forecast and it clearly was weaker then, like 15kt less at 10a 500mb that day vs. tmro's forecast.

John, I'm still comfortable with a good flight, mostly due to the stronger mid-level (700mb) which has sustained wave in similar situations. But like I said, I hope we don't drop off any more! Are you planning to fly? Ramy is on for either a Byron or WSC launch.