Wave watch: Mon Jan 18 (MLK day)

[Kempton]

This morning's GFS run surfaced an offshore setup Mon and Tue Jan 18-19:
Norcal RASP 2p Mon Jan 18
700mb 4p Mon 500mb 4p Mon 700mb 4p Tue
And windy, but so far, not terrible on the ground at 8a:


So will watch and update. If holds close to this, FNX will fly Monday.

[RamyYanetz]

TG planning to join...

Ramy

[Kempton]

Update Fri eve.
Forecast is not wandering too much, esp. given that it's a cutoff low. Monday looks very good, but Tuesday is the best offshore setup I have ever seen, even beating the Nov 2013 setup I flew with Pat Alford, from my "early" NE wind days.

On that Nov 2013 flight, the 500mb, 18k ft altitude wind was 35-40kts. For this Tue it's 60kts, so more energy, but not too much:
500mb 102 hr Norcal RASP

What's even more spectacular is, look at this cross section profile:
You could jump off a mountain top and go up! Lift down to the ground, amazing.

Monday is looking pretty good, but the 500mb flow is a bit strong at 90-100kts
500mb 3p

but not quite aligned with the 850mb level:
850mb

So the plan is Jim Darke and I fly Monday aiming for 1000km, and Tuesday is a 1250km day. Ramy and possibly John Cochrane will fly Tue.

[Pete (98)]

Kemp ~

Thanks for the heads up!

Tell me about the 1,000 km task you are thinking...

[Kempton]

Pete,
Task is zig zagging along the length of the range, Hyampon/Hoopa (if we can get there) and Napa:

108sm Goat - Hyampom H47 10a
180sm H47 - Napa KAPC 11:15a
180sm KAPC - H47 2:30p
180sm H47 - KAPC 3:45p
66sm KAPC - CN12 4:45p
714sm total, 9 hr task time

Per se, we're not going to Hyampon/Hoopa, but rather on the ridge west of those places, but I use those airports as approximate TPs.

Yesterday's 90-95kt wind at 18k have backed off to 70-80kt, so that's good. I've budgeted 3 hours for the upwind slog on Monday. Same task for Tuesday.

[Peter Kelly]

Kemp,

I overheard you mention on the webinar on Saturday that Tuesday was looking good for wave, as well as Monday.

Looking at the sounding for Black Butte (1 PM PST Tue) , it's the kind of air you're looking for - REAL stable, and not too moist.

Have fun.

[Noelle Mayes]

Monday January 18, 2021 08:05 Launch Winds NNW 25 gusting into the 40's

Kempton Izuno & Jim Darke in FNX towed by Ben Mayes in 7Y
and
Ramy Yanetz in TG towed by Nick Mayes in 30Z

Radio call between Nick and Ramy about crab angle. Ramy responded "This is the biggest crab angle I have ever made"

You can follow their progress on Flarm - GliderTracker - OGN Websocket Client

or

Spot Trackers - Soaring Society of America (ssa.org)




08:30 FNX- Off tow at 7K in Goat Wave with 7-8 kts going thru 8,000' with TG
08:31 FNX - Going through 9,000' 8-12 kts
08:33 FNX - Winds 030 at 29kts
09:01 FNX - 16K going to push North to explore around Snow - TG following
11:55 FNX - FNX & TG St Helena Wave 15,500 in 2-4 kts heading to either Napa or Mt Tam
15:00 FNX - 12.5K South of Mt Konocti heading North to next Wave. TG still over St Helena ( Surface Winds at Williams 30 MPH gusting 35 MPH + )
15:50 FNX Safely Back on the Ground and in the hanger.

[Pete (98)]

Noelle ~ Thanks for the photos and info.

Nice flights Kemp & Ramp!

[Kempton]

Thanks everyone, these two days were very interesting.

Yesterday, Monday, after Noelle's 11:55a update in the St. Helena wave, we went south to see if we could get to Napa. Got a few miles down the valley to about Yountville and lost the scent, so then went to the Sonoma wave point. Ramy had marked this before for his cross Delta flights from Byron, so I wanted to try. Weak, but good to have.

At this point, we decided to go for Mt. Tam. My other Marin Headlands flights were May 1, 2016, Mar 31 2017, and Oct 7, 2018.

Last time I was here, Oct 7, 2018 with Ramy and co-pilot David Moruzzi, we hadn't talked to NorCal approach and consequently Noelle was called by NorCal approach and we were asked to leave as we were an unknown obstacle to incoming airliners. This time, I called to let them know we planned to go to Mt. Tam. As I'm not a power pilot, I'm a bit out of my expertise to talk with ATC, but I did, and it went very well. It was easier as airline traffic is down, not many privates flying on a windy day, so the chatter had enough gaps I could easily jump in. Had to ask for the squawk code & frequencies a couple times, but no problem for the repeat. A bit a chuckle when asked "Say again type of aircraft?" And, "Are you with (Ramy's N-number) ?" Ramy has ADS-B so they know exactly who & where he is 8^) They requested to call them if we dropped below 14k ft. And that was it!

Anyway, since I have to stay on frequency with Center, Ramy and I couldn't talk, so before I called Center, we agreed that he'd just follow me. This worked out well. The views was especially fantastic:


With the re-config of the SFO airspace, this waypoint is a couple miles inside Class B. But with a transponder, a glider can fly over Class B. Even tho the Muir Beach wave waypoint didn't work, we enjoyed the view for a minute, then started the 90 mile return trip into the 40-50kt headwind.

This is my 4th trip to this point and return to WSC. The first time, I thought for sure I'd land out. But each flight shows there are plenty of wavelets along the way, and we weren't disappointed. Wave right over downtown San Rafael, Novato near Gnoss field, Petaluma wave point worked, and from near Kenwood, there was a straight-line lift line to almost Calistoga when we hit some tremendous sink and rotor. Up to this point, Ramy and FNX were never more than a couple miles apart which really helped in finding lift. Back at St. Helena, we decided to head back in, and Ramy went back down to Napa, finding the wave, and then returned to WSC. A great day.

Oh, and the landings were interesting into the 32-34mph headwind (thanks Noelle for the video!):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IoD...ew?usp=sharing

OLC:
https://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-3....247252#comment

Tuesday's post next....

[John Cochrane]

Still waiting for that tuesday write up, Kemp! It must have been an interesting day. Your fans are waiting...