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Thread: Wave: Sunday 1/31

  1. #11
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    612

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    I decided to skip today but considering tomorrow (Monday). The wave forecast looks much better and the rain forecast to start mainly after 4PM. Anyone else think the same?

    Ramy

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    918

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Monday looks much better than Sunday mostly due to the 500mb flow, 40kts v 65kts. Cloud wise, Monday is also better (NAM) with a foehn gap on Windy's Monday cloud view. Sunday has no clear foehn gap. Net net, Monday looks pretty good.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    288

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Monday looks good to me. There is a nice wave bar over williams in the afternoon, and I think one might pick up the wave quite low. The skew-T doesn't show too much moisture. Too bad I have a noon work zoom that I can't miss. Hmm, zoom from the cockpit? Put a movie up like they did in speed? Today's thermal possibilities evaporated with the high clouds of the AM forecast

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jan 2021
    Location
    Walnut Creek
    Posts
    7

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Interesting enough, Skysight doesn't show the same, well define, waves as RASP.
    Probably due to more southern wind in it's forecast.
    Any comments?

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    612

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Skylight typically shows much weaker wave than RASP. There are couple of likely reasons:
    1- the skysight resolution maybe lower than RASP and such does not resolve terrain Detail as well as RASP.
    2 - the skysight wave strength color scale is fixed at 10 knots, while the rasp scale changes dynamically, typically 300 fpm. So you will get much more noticeable color presentation on rasp vs skysight.

    the forecast looks promising tomorrow in my opinion, at least until late afternoon when the rain may start. I am planning to fly. Anyone else?

    Ramy

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2021
    Location
    Walnut Creek
    Posts
    7

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Thank you Ramy,
    It makes sense.

    I'm taking 24 for a spin in the morning.
    As a complete newbie I will not follow your steps, just hope to stay up in local wave

    Vadim.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    San Jose, CA
    Posts
    295

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    The WSC RASP is the most accurate predicting wave and convergence off the Mendos compared to SkySight.

    However, when you run SkySight in the HRRR model it gets pretty close.

    You can select the HRRR model at the top left corner of the SkySight window which is a higher resolution model:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    I'm expecting wave tomorrow until later afternoon before the rain & lower cloud bases arrive.
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2021
    Location
    Walnut Creek
    Posts
    7

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Got it, Thank you Pete.

    I saw HRRR tab, but never consider looking at it, thinking that SkySite algorithms would be better for everything soaring.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Posts
    227

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    This was the best one I snapped. Too much to see!Click image for larger version. 

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  10. #20
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    612

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    I snapped a photo of the stack of Lennies over the Capay valley which took all of us to 17,900.

    ramy

    Click image for larger version. 

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