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Thread: Wave: Sunday 1/31

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2018
    Location
    Marin
    Posts
    32

    Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Both the huckbone RASP and skysight are showing a mellow SW wave day. I'm having a tough time trying to nail down how much cloud cover might be present, as that would be the one component of the forecast that could ruin it

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Anyone else keeping an eye on sunday?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    933

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Yes, Sunday is looking like a good day to practice a little XC wave. Ground winds look to be light in the morning, 18k winds are optimal for cross-country at 55-60 knots and it dries out as the day goes on. This day looks similar to a day in October of 2014 when I flew with John Cochrane. That day also had strong lower-level southerly flow, triggering a very low level wave just 3 miles sw of WSC:
    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...ct-14-Wave-Day

    That roll cloud shown in my post was right next to I-5, and only about 1,800ft. off the surface. A video as we climb in front of that cloud:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/17tX...ew?usp=sharing

    and said roll cloud:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    You could get off in front of that roll cloud at say 2,000 ft, confirm the lift, then dive ahead and parallel to the roll cloud to 140 knots, pull up to set your low point at 1,500ft. Then work your way north into stronger wave up to 17.95k and you've got your Diamond gain without going over 18k. Think about it!

    On the RASP, you'll see the strongest wave is forecast off the T15-T16 ridge. I’ve flown that a couple times and indeed it can be very good. You'll have a headwind on the way home, so keep checking behind you as you head north for clouds to mark the path back to WSC.

    I'll not be flying, but somebody should give this a go, it's an excellent xc wave practice day (so long as the forecast holds...)
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    933

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Digging further, there was Oct 13, 2016, also very similar, strong S low level flow. Flew with Russ Pillard that day:
    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news...Thu-Wave-Alert

    there's are two videos in there of us climbing in wave at the T15 ridge.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2018
    Location
    Davis
    Posts
    6

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Thanks for the heads up Alex and Kempton for the insight. Will be watching Sunday.
    R4

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    296

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    looking at skew-ts, I see good hope. dew point and temperature get close around 5000' and again at 14000', but there are not thick areas of temp=dewpoint. One can hope for two stacks of lennies with holes in them!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    933

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Yes, rain is the main risk, but so far, that appears to stay on the Mendos, and drying out over the day. So no need for a sunrise launch, I think around 11a would be fine.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    620

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    TG is watching.

    Ramy

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    296

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Fri PM soundings are drier, but sadly more southerly. Due south at 850, turning SW at 500. The 3 sisters sounding actually looks pretty thermic, a nice V to 5000' and S winds< 20. Experts, any chance of it working with the wind this far S?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    620

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Will be interesting to know if anyone find wave today. It will be a good indicator as both days look similar with Sunday a little stronger but more southerly.

    Ramy

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
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    933

    Re: Wave: Sunday 1/31

    Yes, looking a little too southerly Sunday. Today, Saturday looks less pessimistic, so if you are already there, give it a go....
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

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