Wave watch: Sat Feb 27

[Kempton]

A NNE wind is setting up for Saturday:
850mb 700mb 500mb 700mb 128hr

As always, this very much depends on the low staying on track as a slight wandering has a big impact on the wave forecast. We'd like the cutoff low to move right over San Luis Obispo ideally, but for now, just don't go any further east. The waviness is very good considering that the 500mb winds are only 55-60kts. I attribute this to the cold, stable air. Ground winds could be very strong and gusty during mid-morning, so a sunrise takeoff is best. Windy has ground winds at 14kts at 7a for now. Will update on Wed morn.

[Ben Mayes]

What do you think about West wave Monday??

[Kempton]

My comment on Monday is in that thread.

[Kempton]

Saturday's wind is 340 early, swinging to 010, so not usually the wind direction that I fly for wave, but the forecast wave strength on the Mendicino's is too interesting to ignore. So we'll give it a go with a dawn launch and work our way upwind with the goal of getting to the Trinities. then we'll figure it out after that. Mount Lassen and back to Yolla? We'll see...
10a 700mb 700mb

My guess is that we can't start on Goat and may have to start at Snow.

[Ben Mayes]

Any thoughts on butte wave Saturday for the less experienced or less adventurous pilot?

[Kempton]

Buttes wave should work late afternoon as the wind swings to 000-010. OTOH, I don't know of anyone trying it at 350 or so....

[John Cochrane]

Getting upwind to the trinities seems like a stretch! But we're learning there is a lot of wave in all sorts of wind directions. Maybe buttes and then out to the sierra, cross wind. There is a lot of wave in that RASP too.

[Kempton]

Yes, upwind is always harder, but the SF trips show that our modern equipment makes it very doable. So long as headwinds are <60kts, and you can regularly get to 17k+, then my upwind reach from 17k to 11k is 20-24nm, which is plenty to go from bar to bar. That's the theory anyway. With conditions consistent during the day, wind speed <60kts, and an 11+ hour day, there's plenty of time to see what works. And John, you have the ship to do it, better than FNX...

[John Cochrane]

We were flying in 50-60 mph NNW wave (330) two weeks ago. My lesson is that it works if you can climb 2 knots. If you stop to climb at 1 knot and you plow through sink on the way upwind, it's going to take forever. I only made it to Yolla peak that day. Option 2, of course, is to somehow avoid those rivers of wave sink! It did encourage me that there are local ridges facing all sorts of directions so there is wave even when wind doesn't blow across the main axis of the mountains. I notice a deep convective layer Saturday which may be part of the better waviness.

[Kempton]

Deep convective layer? I think you mean shallow, no?
And, would you say the Norcal RASP or the Williams RASP was accurate for NNW wave?