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Thread: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    As of Sunday morning, 6 & 7 days out, the Apr 3-4 weekend has tantalizing possibilities, like SW wave on Sat:
    Name:  700mb 153 Apr 3.png
Views: 264
Size:  18.0 KB 1p 700mb but just as important, could be heavy overcast suppressing ground heating thus supporting the wave from this 500mb rh at 1p Name:  500mb rh 153 Apr 3.png
Views: 263
Size:  17.7 KB
    These charts are from that NOAA site I posted a few weeks ago, giving finer time and parameter control. This is my first long range overcast prediction, using the 500mb rh above, so we'll see.

    Sunday could be similar to last Saturday, that is, a super cu day:
    Name:  700mb 180 Apr 4.png
Views: 263
Size:  82.7 KB 700mb Apr 4, Sunday

    It's still a bit far off, but by Tue I'll update these outlooks.
    Last edited by Kempton; 03-28-2021 at 08:13 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    As of this morning's run, the wave has fizzled to very light, so tough to get into, and the Sunday cu have disappeared, except for Yolla. I may still come up for a workday, we'll see.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    As of last night and this morning, Sunday now looks to be an interesting mixed thermal & wave day, with the new cutoff low driving both. Monday, if you can fly, looks to be a fabulous post frontal day. Will keep tracking this.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	norcal rasp 500mb 107hr Apr 4.png 
Views:	21 
Size:	1.09 MB 
ID:	6242 Sunday 4p 500mb wave
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    San Jose, CA
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    Kemp ~

    Thanks for starting this thread!

    Monday is starting to look like the best day, but... It will be interesting to see if the wx continues to track that way.

    Currently, planning to fly on Monday...
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2021
    Location
    Walnut Creek
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    Always reading forecast posts with outmost interest.

    Iím looking at the forecast and it shows heavy low cloud coverage for Monday.
    Should it be concern in the planning process, or those cloud will not stay on the way?





    Best,
    Vadim
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    Belmont, CA
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    I'll probably try to fly Sunday if it looks decent. Monday is booked with work (ugh!). Might conditions hold into Tuesday?

    Andy

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Menlo Park CA
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    The first rule of Williams is that Williams is closed on Tuesday! Monday still looks best to me, but not epic. Cu from williams north, maybe wave on top.

  8. #8
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    This forecast has been very unstable as our target time approaches due to TWO low pressure systems:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	700mb 072 Apr 34 2 lows.png 
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ID:	6246 700mb 72 hour for Sun Apr 4

    That was last night. This morning's run shows blue for Monday as that low to the north of us now is forecast to move SE. So the forecast cu come and go and the wave comes and goes. The only thing I know for sure is that it'll change 8^). I'm here at WSC working on the ship, so am keenly interested to fly, but who knows what will happen, will update tonight.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  9. #9
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    Check again for Monday, it all gone now...

    Ramy

  10. #10
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    Re: Apr 3-4 wknd outlook

    As of this morning's RASP, Sunday looks interesting enough that I'll give it a go. There's possibility for a decently dramatic difference in cu cloudbase going north:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1600lst.d2 Apr 4 1600 cu.png 
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Size:	31.4 KB 
ID:	62474p cu

    then looking at the vertical slice, you could go upwind from the west most cu and possibly contact the wave:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	boxwmax.curr.1500lst.d2 Apr 4 1500 slice.png 
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Size:	27.8 KB 
ID:	6252
    Monday is looking like a decent cu day all along the range:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1500lst.d2 Apr 5 cu 1500.png 
Views:	16 
Size:	29.3 KB 
ID:	6250
    not sure if I'm going to fly though due to other obligations.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

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