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Thread: WX outlook: Sat May 15

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    988

    WX outlook: Fri-Sun May 14-16

    A modest cutoff low comes overhead Sat morning, promising a reasonably early start Saturday (1130a):
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base May 15 1130a Skys May11.jpg 
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ID:	6368 Cu base Skysight 1130a. NOTE: 18.5K at Truckee before noon, Wow!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base May 15 2p Skys May 11.jpg 
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ID:	6369 Cu base Skysight 2p. Look how far west that convergence line is!

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base May 15 430p Skys May 11.jpg 
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ID:	6370 Cu base Skysight 430p, you'd best be on final glide by 430p

    Right now, this setup looks good for an around the horn flight, with the goal of Donner Summit by 430p for final glide back to WSC around the N side of Beale's TFR.

    Confidence in the cutoff low showing up is high, but as always, it's exactly where the center is, it's strength and when, are the variable variables. There may be wave too for a few hours. Next update after the WSC RASP run tonite.
    Last edited by Kempton; 05-12-2021 at 11:51 AM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: WX outlook: Fri-Sun May 14-16

    I changed the title to include Friday & Sunday as it looks REALLY good, what with 14K bases:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1500lst.d2 May 14 058 cu.png 
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ID:	63713p Friday. No refresh for Skysight for Saturday, but Name:  700mb May 15 081.jpg
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Size:  47.9 KB the Saturday 2p 700mb rh is looking good.

    With the low pretty much right on top of us on Saturday, this means:
    - Cu start earlier
    - Are higher,
    - Run later, and
    - Possibly allow for cu in the Delta to cross back north late in the day.
    Possible wave in the early morning for a few hours, but it's all variable until the day before as the low wanders about. So for sure, some great soaring, just not sure of the type and timing until Fri morning's RASP run.

    Sunday looks incredible to central OR:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base May 16 2p Skys May 12.jpg 
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ID:	6373 Sun May 16 2p Cu base

    All in all a super weekend shaping up.
    Last edited by Kempton; 05-12-2021 at 11:53 AM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Menlo Park CA
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    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    It really does look great! I have to work fri, but will be out sat for sure. I also notice the cu and convergence seem to stay on the hills all day long, with very little blowout. Another plan might be Lassen and beyond -- Ravensdale -- and return over the horn?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Yamhill, Oregon
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    14

    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    Keep an eye on the cirrus for both Friday and Saturday. It may put a crimp in some flights.
    Craig

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    650

    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    Keeping my eyes on the forecast with great interest. don’t see much cirrus on the NAM blimpmap for Friday or Saturday, but the lift and clouds on Saturday are predicted to be significantly west of the Mendos crest, could be hard to connect? Also OD Lassen area? Wind can be a factor as well. Dynamic weekend for sure.

    Ramy

  6. #6
    Join Date
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    988

    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    To Craig‘s point about cirrus, looking at the 500mb RH, that could be a modest issue to some extent Saturday in extreme Northern California, and possibly Sunday in the Lassen to Goose Lake area. At the moment both don’t look very thick. I can’t post charts right now, but will track.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
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    Menlo Park CA
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    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    The convergence line Saturday is very far to the west, very interesting. I recall a year or so ago when I spent an hour sitting 500' above goat in the blue, then watched 2T just tow to goat, dive straight over the back towards Gravelly valley and the cus. It worked great. Hold your breath, here we go! It will at least be interesting .

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    San Jose, CA
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    314

    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    Just a little east wind to push the convergence off Goat Mtn to the west. Saturday will be an interesting day with the low pressure sitting in NV during the day.

    I'm planning on flying Friday - Sunday since soaring have finally returned after all of the north wind days.
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
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    988

    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    If this evening's WSC RASP charts hold for Sat & Sun, there can be very early starts, like possibly 9-9:30a launches both days, with 1000K dog leg flights up to Trinitys, then east to around the Alvord Desert and back.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1100lst.d2. May 15.png 
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ID:	6374cu Sat morn 11a Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1800lst.d2 May 15.png 
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ID:	6375cu Sat 6p Click image for larger version. 

Name:	blwind.curr.1400lst.d2May 15.png 
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ID:	6376Sat 2p winds, a touch breezy due to the close low

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base 11a May 16 66h.PNG 
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ID:	6377Sun morn 11a cu Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base 6p May 16 73h.PNG 
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ID:	6378 Sun 6p cu Click image for larger version. 

Name:	BL ave wind 2p May 16 69h.PNG 
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ID:	6379 Sun 2p wind, less than Saturday

    Due to the cutoff low wandering about so significantly impacting the forecast, I'll wait to post the next updated Skysight cu forecast for southern OR, NW NV, but it was showing widespread and high enough (14-15k) bases to support my 1000K outlook.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    322

    Re: WX outlook: Sat May 15

    BB is going to wait for Sunday. Might be great today. Might be awful. Hard to tell.

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