Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 16

Thread: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    983

    Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    Looking like good soaring, albeit starting later in the day, like noon on Saturday, with 13k+ bases by 3p:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	cloudbase May 29 Sysight May 26.jpg 
Views:	43 
Size:	139.3 KB 
ID:	6396

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	cloudbase May 30 Sysight May 26.jpg 
Views:	35 
Size:	133.5 KB 
ID:	6397with Sunday looking very impressive, with 13k bases on Goat, 16k bases at Yolla. Cross over to Lassen and the front range of the Sierra for 17k bases! Just be at Quincy with 14k in hand and you can make it back, winds are light, maybe even a quartering 10kt tailwind. Will post the WSC RASP when it runs.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    645

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    I no longer see much cu in the forecast for this weekend over the mendos, but looks like good blue thermals to 12K or so, maybe more. Kempton do you still expect cu?

    Ramy

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    983

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    Unfortunately, Ramy is correct in the cu dept. Thermal heights are holding steady at 13-14k for the weekend, but Mendo's cu are rare on Saturday and none on Sunday, boo!

    Dang dry air from the desert due to the cut off low to the south.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    983

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    As this forecast is mostly influenced by the cutoff low, things will change up to the day of flight.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1400lst.d2 May 30 2p 033.png 
Views:	47 
Size:	28.7 KB 
ID:	6399 And the forecast is back to CU on Sat up to 15-16k on the Mendos!
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zsfclclmask.curr.1400lst.d2 May 30 2p 057.png 
Views:	42 
Size:	29.3 KB 
ID:	6400and Sunday woot!!!!

    Task wise, FNX plan for both days is to launch around 1030a as the BLTops are already at 11k on Snow both days, get to Yolla for the 14k+ cu, flat glide to the Lassen foothills, run down south to the Mono Lake area, back up to Donner Summit or north of there nlt 5p, then flat glide back to WSC. This same task anyone with a modern 15m ship could do this also, pls consider.

    but it can always change.....
    Last edited by Kempton; 05-28-2021 at 04:14 PM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    645

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    With forecast and tasks like this my FOMO is running very high.
    TG is planning to fly both days.

    Ramy

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,148

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    I'll be flying the ASG32 on Saturday, but don't plan to venture much past Weaverville, if that.
    One thing that we can all be sure of, the forecast always changes.
    Peter Kelly

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    983

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    The morning report, looking even better.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base noon May 29 019 rasp.jpg 
Views:	37 
Size:	132.5 KB 
ID:	6404Last night's RASP run for noon cu showed a slight improvement, which I had expected as both the moisture went up slightly, and we could see from the airport the clouds were better than forecast, with some OD too.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Cu base noon May 29 007 rasp.png 
Views:	39 
Size:	27.7 KB 
ID:	6403This morning's noon cu chart, so while even more cu, they are a bit lower, like 13k instead of 14k

    So let's talk numbers in case you plan to cross. It's 55nm from Yolla to the 6893 peak directly west of Rogers, so at 42:1 you'll lose 8k on crossing, so you'll need to depart Yolla at 15k. I don't anticipate sink and winds are <10kt from the E per forecast, so that can degrade the progress.

    Sunday still looks good to, slightly drier and higher.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,148

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    I agree - it looks even better for the crossing. I've done it about five times. Charlie came along with me on one of those and we were both flying the ASW-24's (OJ and 88).
    It wasn't forecast to be even nearly as good as today when we did it.

    I'm staying below 12,500, but I'll probably turn the Trinities.
    Peter Kelly

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,148

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    final glide back to WSC may have a 10kt NW wind component from 6k down to 2 k so be conservative on the 60 minute final glide.

    The WSC RASP sounding for 4 PM
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	wsc 1600 sat.PNG 
Views:	235 
Size:	31.4 KB 
ID:	6405
    Peter Kelly

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Schleicher ASW-24
    Posts
    2,148

    Re: Memorial Day wknd outlook, nice!

    Lots of good flights today. See OLC for todays flights.

    PJ and I flew the ASG-32 (WS) as planned - Tree farm start - Trinities and return. 4.5 hrs.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	direct- to T.PNG 
Views:	41 
Size:	715.5 KB 
ID:	6406

    Two photos looking north on Trinity Alps.

    Left one is using a low res go pro, right one is snapshot from my phone.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	t1.jpg 
Views:	217 
Size:	88.9 KB 
ID:	6407
    -- Click image for larger version. 

Name:	ss- t alps 5-30 phone photo.jpg 
Views:	209 
Size:	147.8 KB 
ID:	6408


    I'm taking the liberty of doing yet another edit, for two reasons.


    1. It would have been a bit disarming (read: stark realizations setting in) to turn towards home and then see it was a great distance to the next thermal, if I hadn't done this a few times before, and
    2. All pilots who wants to improve their flying skills as a glider pilots must learn to review flights (both their own and flights of other pilots) on OLC. IMHO using OLC to review flights is basic to flying better and safer.


    Here are two more screen shots, along with some important info for all glider pilots.


    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	on T Alps-view to ssw-5-30-21 mendos in pink oval.jpg 
Views:	190 
Size:	37.3 KB 
ID:	6409

    This is a snapshot looking south towards the Mendos as we start the return flight towards home. We have completed our last thermal turn over the Trinities and are at 12,300 ft.

    That is the southern peak of the Trinities in the center foreground, and in the far distance to the right of that peak is the next visible sign of lift - circled with a thin pink line. You will need to zoom in to see the cu that are inside of that pink circle. The Cu run from T-15 southward to Snow Mountain along the Mendos. Here's a zoom in from the original: Click image for larger version. 

Name:	zoom to mendos.PNG 
Views:	47 
Size:	137.7 KB 
ID:	6412

    This second screen shot is while running OLC. I can recreate the point in time and the nearly the exact place I was located when I snapped the photo above. Using OLC/ See You, I am able to back track and see how I arrived at this point. I may view it from any angle imaginable.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	on T Alps-view to ssw OLC-SeeYou 3D.jpg 
Views:	188 
Size:	94.7 KB 
ID:	6410


    If you go to OLC, flights for 5/29/2021...
    Daily Score OLC-Plus 2021 - USA - May 29, 2021 (onlinecontest.org)

    select any pilot and do the same, but in this case select my name, and about 15 from the top

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	olc select.PNG 
Views:	193 
Size:	12.5 KB 
ID:	6411

    Click on the info icon on the right margin to see the details of the flight. Then log in to OLC (any pilot may create a log in), see tabs on top right and select See You. After it reloads select the "3D" icon on the right. See the baro time scale on lower part of page, and on that scale slide the vertical blue line to 14:50:26 and you will see the same image as I have posted above. Zoom in and out tilt the perspective scroll with the mouse wheel, etc.

    You can do the same with any of your own flights or anyone else's flight that has been posted to OLC - a fantastic learning tool.
    Last edited by Peter Kelly; 05-30-2021 at 03:58 PM. Reason: Add a photo
    Peter Kelly

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •