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Thread: Weather and Soaring Conditions

  1. #1
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    Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Changes are in the air.

    Two standards are/ have come into play.

    The Doug Armstrong adage that a diurnal change of 40 degrees is significant to good soaring happened last night.
    Truckee was 32 degrees this morning - yet it was hot yesterday and it's going to be hot up there today. I suspect the 40 deg spread between the nighly low temp and the daytime high temp is happening.

    The Four Corners high is forecast to set up. In recent years the four corners high has caused us to have some record setting soaring conditions in the Sierras.
    The monsoonal moisture from southern Ariz and NM is causing clouds from Mexico up to Colorado. As the high pressure moves eastward from the CA to the fourcorners, that moisture is fcst to be swept to the NW - to our area here in northern CA- good chance of T-storms this weekend - certainly over the Sierra Nev.

    I'd really be surprised if we didn't get a really good soaring fcst for this Saturday over the Mendos.

    I'm evaluating my schedule to see if I can make it.
    Peter Kelly

  2. #2
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Agreed, Saturday looks to be a 8-9 out of 10 type day, although perhaps with a late start. BLIPS are showing 14.6K bases in the Trinitys:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    with the GFS showing 40-50% humidity, so there may be better clouds than are indicated in the BLIP:
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    Finally, Klamath Falls is showing a high of 97F, way above the average of 83F for this time of year. So the start from Goat/Snow will be a bit slow, but get better as you go north. With luck I can be out at WSC Friday eve thru Sunday.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Looking at the relative humidity/moisture and showwalter chart...

    Here is the NAM product for a 60 hr fcst - it is a bit more streamlined and less specific detail then the GFS Model shown above for the same period. It is a bit easier to read, and suggests that a pilot should not be tooo hopeful once NE of California - since it is a lot drier - with 30 % or less RH in SE Oregon.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    The 700 mb / 10,000 ft chart shows upward vertical action in northern calif at 5 pm on saturday, so lift ought to be there late in the day.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    I agree on the later start - based on the charts not indicating the necessary instability earlier in the day on Saturday.


    But all that is subject to change - as the fcst changes.

    All very dynamic.
    Peter Kelly

  4. #4
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    JJ will take a tow Saturday and maybe Sunday + use your shear and break to make up another batch of wing tie-downs and wing-runner tip wheels, if that's OK ?(Rex).
    JJ

  5. #5
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    I will be flying on Saturday - Hugh and I are taking the Duo out to the hills early afternoon.

    Thanks for the weather synopsis Peter and Kempton! Sounds like we may be having some good soaring weather - I hope to find some time to take advantage of it!

    It will be good to see everyone. It looks like there are quite a few people on the schedule. Karl Adams (kayaker and author) and Larry will be downfor the weekend. Tom Jue will also be on the field - working on his license, not his famous newsletter.

    I believe the weather forecast has enticed Ray Gimmey to come out and fly the Mendo's.

    JJ is on the schedule - is Pat going to be able to make it?

    Who else is coming up to fly? Today is Friday - we should give Rex and Noelle some notice for the tow pilots.

    A social dinner will be in order on Saturday evening - time and place to be determined.

    See you there!
    Ginny Farnsworth G3
    Past President
    Valley Soaring Association

  6. #6
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Yep, it is looking good, other than the chance for high clouds. Don't forget to check the blipmap total cloud cover.
    BTW, are tows available at Montague every day now?

    Ramy

  7. #7
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    May 2011
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Ramy,
    It looks from the website that they tow everyday, but I would call to be sure. I was planning on flying from WSC Sunday (probably) and then taking Monday - Saturday and doing a little safari. I was thinking of Truckee/Minden but the NWS is forecasting breezy at higher elevations around and south of Lake Tahoe Tuesday - Thursday so I have been debating going down to Tehachapi or California City. Anyone have their crystal weather ball working? It looks to be hot in the Owens Valley and even hotter in the Antelope Valley and Mojave. I was planning on doing the WSC safari to Montague in a few weeks, so I will wait until then to go there.
    Luke

  8. #8
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Getting back to the subject of flying this weekend....

    I see the thermals in the area of southern Oregon is not panning out too well.
    Also, I see a gap in the lift going north, but there is a possibility of a high jump off from Yolla Peak over to the Lassen area.
    There are a few wildfires to contend with...
    The Quincy fire is causing a lot of smoke, and the Lakehead fire is still not contained.

    My ideal for tomorrow would be to cross the valley, climb Lassen, head south over Reno, around the Lake, and back to WSC.
    We'll see how that goes.

    Noelle, I'll take a tow on Saturday.

    Here's the image taken at 2000 hrs GMT, 8/2/12 (1 PM Thursday)

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Peter Kelly

  9. #9
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Sunday is looking Phat.

  10. #10
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    Re: Weather and Soaring Conditions

    Quote Originally Posted by lashcraft View Post
    Sunday is looking Phat.
    Research on the word "Phat" proved interesting.

    I liked the one on the 6th page....
    ...of the Urban Dictionary...
    from the English "emphatic" from the Greek "emphatikos"
    Peter Kelly

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