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Thread: Soaring Conditions Outlook - Saturday 1/29/11

  1. #1
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    Soaring Conditions Outlook - Saturday 1/29/11

    Saturday looks like a good day to visit WSC to fly.

    High clouds may not come in until mid day or later.
    Shouldn't be any fog on Saturday am, (like there has been recently).
    A somewhat unstable air mass and calm winds in the AM.
    Westerly winds aloft are strengthening and expected to produce wave before sunset.
    Surface winds not supposed to be over 10 kts from the west by sunset.

    Wave, if it forms, will be over Tree Farm Gate and over Bear Valley (south side of the BV ranch TP). Lack of stability may impeded the wave from forming, along with the lack of stronger winds at lower altitudes (5,000 ft).

    I concluded all of the above from the UNISYS charts :

    http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.ph...egion=us&t=4p2

    (visiting various levels of those charts for Friday through Saturday at 5 pm.)

    Noelle, I'll take a tow on Saturday.
    Peter Kelly

  2. #2
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    Re: Soaring Conditions Outlook - Saturday 1/29/11

    It is now 4:30 on Thursday
    NAM charts go as far as Saturday morning at 5 am.

    Soaring conditions still look about the same as a I briefed above.

    I still can't tell about when the high clouds will arrive.
    The fog should not be a factor - even though we have had it the last couple of days and will have it again tomorrow.

    Tomorow morning - Friday - we'll look at the blip and on friday nite look at the rasp.

    so far so good.
    Last edited by Peter Kelly; 01-27-2011 at 10:16 PM.
    Peter Kelly

  3. #3
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    Re: Soaring Conditions Outlook - Saturday 1/29/11

    Friday 11 am
    still looking at flying on Saturday at WSC.

    here's the deal
    models previously depicted the low sliding west to east and staying north of us.
    now they show it moving more southeastward,
    thus it may come over the top of us on Sunday.

    my estimate is, as of the moment, maybe some fog in am, maybe not, upper level clouds will probably be present.
    BLIP shows total cloud cover at 100%.

    we'll get low clouds before sunset as the low approaches from the NW

    Wave looks probable with the expected west wind.
    I plan to take a tow - maybe as early as 11 am tomorrow- if I am ready be then, and especially if there is evidence of wave.

    and another thing - I expect rain on Sunday.
    Last edited by Peter Kelly; 01-28-2011 at 11:51 AM. Reason: spell check
    Peter Kelly

  4. #4
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    Re: Soaring Conditions Outlook - Saturday 1/29/11

    The attached are nothing like what was fcst
    These are for today a 5 pm and are only a 12 hour look

    I'll be up at WSC about about 11 ish
    Wave will be interesting to explore it may a good day

    I have little confidence in models at this point.


    Click image for larger version. 

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    I just watched the chanel 3 wx lady ( 9 AM)
    She shows the fog NOT burning off.

    Just the opposite of what they promised me on the 15th of Jan - on that trip all I did was start the engine and taxi for
    practice.

    Probably the same today - more taxi practice - based on chanel 3 tv wx fcst.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by Peter Kelly; 01-29-2011 at 09:07 AM.
    Peter Kelly

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