Tue: RASP Wave charts

[Kempton]

In my talk on long range forecasting, I mentioned "dry lab" exercises. Let's take today's RASP. While we can't have RASPs in advance of the evening beforehand, let's talk about what we want to see. Several days ago the morning north winds were predicted, with a Unisys 700mb chart that was similar to this:



and indeed this held to today. The RASP 850mb chart (5,000 ft.) for 11a is showing:


a small patch just south of Goat Mt. (the number "2" on the chart). The 700mb (11,000 ft.) chart for 11a shows the same patch (red spot):


Now the 500mb chart (18,000 ft.) for 11a shows the wind swinging around to NNW, not the best for wave, but there is still a Goat wave, just displaced to the east a bit and weaker:


Looking at the 2p & 5p, the wind drops off and so does the strength of the wave.
If anyone does fly this, let us know how it went.

[Ginny Farnsworth]

OK, so what is the red area SE side of Goat at 10 AM at 850 mb? Is it lift generated by the ridge? If so, would you consider releasing in it and trying to get into the wave on the SW side? Am I correct in thinking that it is gone at 700 mb and might not go high enough to count on? Or am I way off base?

[Kempton]

Ah Ms. Farnsworth, good question! My answer is.. I don't know what that patch is, it is upwind and could be ridge lift but I've not seen these charts forecast ridge lift. Don't know, next time it shows up, someone will have to go out and test it. I nominate Golf3 for the next data collection mission!