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Thread: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    977

    Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    A strong low level heating event looks to peak Saturday with some holdover to Sunday:
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    The forecast temp for Saturday at Ukiah is 79F, that's 15F above normal. I say low level heating because this is not entirely from a big concentration of air directly over the area, but rather from a "slanted" stack, note the way offset center of the 500mb, off the SoCal coast:
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    That was a rather hacked explanation, if anyone has a better one, please comment! The RH is reasonable at 30-40%:
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    With the recent rains, there will be a decent amount of soil moisture. While its too far out for a BLIPMAP, this seems like a good candidate day for some scattered and reasonably high cu on the Mendo's. With no wind and strong sun, this could be a pretty decent day.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Santa Rosa, CA
    Posts
    177

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    Thanks for the good forecast. I plan of flying Friday & Saturday. Sunday was in the plans too, but Sunday is not going to happen for me, as I thought I my wife arrived at the SFO at 11 PM, but it is 11 AM, so my airport visit on Sunday will be SFO.
    ~ Larry Roberts

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    636

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    So far NAM blipmap does not cooperate for Saturday. With such a strong heating I also hoped for a great weekend but so far it is less than mediocre. The jury is still out for Sunday.

    Ramy

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Menlo Park, CA
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    977

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    I believe the proper meteorologic term for this particular change in the forecast is "Pooping out" ! 8^)

    I, however, will be at WSC to do maintenance as Wes is biking up in Orland….
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Fremont, CA
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    220

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    Kempton,

    "Backside slider lows", "Slanted stacks", "Pooping out"..... Is there no end to your catalog of technical meteorological terms?!?!

    Pat

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Williams Gliderport
    Posts
    17

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    Duo available tomorrow afternoon with me, Drew Pearce, for any students wanting to practice thermalling or if you just need a BFR. Larry Roberts and I both had a good day playing in the hills today. 10,700' was the highest but plenty of cue to the north that looked a little higher for the more adventurous. Just call Noelle in the morning if you want to fly with me in the Duo.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Santa Rosa, CA
    Posts
    177

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    I usually fly the 'calendar model', and I am always happy to get air time.

    Flying was better than expected on Friday. Only Drew and Grey in the Duo (MG) and I went to the mountains. I didn't take off until after 1:30, which turned out to be good. When I arrived at WSC there were clouds at Yolo Bola, and as I set up small clouds were building south, and were about Black Butte when I took off. Turned out the clouds started marking lift down to Long Valley/High Valley Ridge line.
    I went North to about 5 miles south of Black Butte and was high enough to go North, but the day was not really great and I wanted to be sure to get back to WSC. So I turned south and flew back to Goat, Long Valley, to Rumsy Gap, then home.
    Saturday, the day that was supposed to be the best, was bad. Only a couple of us towed out, 2 to Goat, one to Walker. It was very choppy and light.
    I spent 2 hours bouncing around Goat Mt. I figured I needed the practice.

    Friday's flight.
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    I got to fly almost 5 hours in 2 days. Good practice.
    ~ Larry Roberts

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    636

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    Larry, thanks for the report. Just to clarify, it is actually no surprise that Friday was better. NAM clearly showed that Friday will be the best day.

    Ramy

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    WSC, San Anselmo
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    446

    Re: Sat/Sun March 15-16 WX

    Sunday turned out to be a fabulous day - and caught us unaware! Ray - 7V; Ginny - G3; Rich - OJ; Bill - F8; Ed and Larry H - MG; took tows to various spots from just north of Walker to just east of Goat, and after playing around in some very rough thermals, contacted wave at about 7,000 ft and soared all afternoon. With winds up to 39 kts, from varying degrees of west, we reached altitudes of up to 14,000 +. Ray went as far north as Yolla (maybe further). The lift seemed to be about 3-4 miles east of goat ridge, and later in the day it was just east of the Cortina ridge, between the ridge and canal at the highway 20 cut.
    It certainly caught me unaware, and I did not even have my O2 turned on! What a beautiful view of the Mendo range, even in this drought year with minimal snow. No clouds, but Shasta and Lassen were glistening white.

    Thanks to Rex and Ben for the tows through the rough air to get out there, and to all at WSC that made this unexpectedly great day happen!

    This AM we have fairly strong north winds, with the mts to the north visible in the distance.

    Hope to see a good group out flying, racing, learning and feasting next weekend.
    Ginny Farnsworth G3
    Past President
    Valley Soaring Association

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