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Thread: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

  1. #1
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    Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Last weekend's wave was pretty weak to nonexistent, but that was likely from the weak front just brushing us.

    This coming Sunday, Nov 1, however has a much better setup. 6 days out still allows for some deviation from the forecast, but experience shows that the bigger the system generating the setup, the less the variation of forecast. A broad rule for sure tho.....

    Sunday 4p 700mb:
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    This is looking similar to the spectacular "Williams Arch" day of a couple years ago, the WX setup is similar:

    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news/...-WX-Sept-28-29


    That had to be one of the best wave days ever @WSC. I'll keep watch on this setup, next update Wed morning.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Thanks for the heads up ~ Kemp!

    I will start keeping a closer eye on the weather.

    I can even fly this Sunday if things continue to be soar able at any level.

    Staying tuned...
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  3. #3
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Now that Kemp taught me the secrets... Sunday is starting to look wetter, but saturday is starting to look promising

    Sat:
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    sun:
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    both are 1800Z 700 mb winds and RH

    John Cochrane

  4. #4
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    John,
    Glad to see you're getting into using the longer range tools. AFAIK, only Peter Kelly & I use these tools.

    One BIG caveat, though. Doug Armstrong (and experience) show that while the 06Z and 18Z do eventually converge as time goes to zero, they are not nearly as trustworthy as the 00Z, and the 12Z is the best. My announced outlooks are always based on what I see in the 12Z, which is completely available by 10:05a PDT, 9:05a PST.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    As of this morning's 12Z GFS, the front is speeding up, and now it looks like Saturday afternoon, possibly morning is waving, with Sunday as post frontal after noon or so. We'll know more with this evening's RASP capturing Saturday's outlook.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  6. #6
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    As of this morning's 12Z GFS, the front is speeding up, and now it looks like Saturday afternoon, possibly morning is waving, with Sunday as post frontal after noon or so. We'll know more with this evening's RASP capturing Saturday's outlook.
    To my untutored eye, saturday is starting to look very nice for blue wave in the afternoon. Here is the horizontal slice, right through goat mtn., and below it the sounding. From the slice, I see one nice primary wave -- energy all going up and not downwind (someday someone tell me what features of the sounding drive this behavior) From the sounding, I see nice wind at ridge top, increasing with altitude, a nice inversion at ridge top -- but a very dry airmass suggesting it will be blue.

    Now, do we have the oomph to get up, go north, grab the yolla wave, and come back or... or..

    John Cochrane

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  7. #7
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Ah, now when considering XC in wave, to me the concepts are "entry point" and "the highway". Mousing over the hours on the left at the 850mb, there's really only the wave downwind of Snow all day that's accessible by a tow, this is 2p std time:
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    At the 500mb level tho, the "highway" is much better described:

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    and later in the day it gets better:

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    But don't fall out unless you are near the Snow entry point. My rules when XC wave flying are:
    - When in doubt up high, go upwind
    - When in doubt down low, go downwind.
    - Put a PostIt note on your panel that says "keep crabbing". Depending on your speed, you are anywhere from 10-40 degrees into the wind as you head along a cross wind wave track. Since this is very unnatural, it's easy to left the crab out and just point at your target. Ramy knows about this. More explanation on my post here:
    https://www.williamssoaring.com/news/...highlight=arch

    I'll not b flying this but will be tracking those who do...
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Now Sunday's looking better than Saturday:
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    and be like that all day with some cloud.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  9. #9
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    here’s what I’m seeing. Sorry, I didn’t paste in the pictures. (Is that useful? They’re pretty small) I welcome disagreement, I’m just learning to read Williams weather!


    Saturday I see weak, and little chance of thermaling. One might stay up in the convergence over three sisters late in the day if the wave doesn’t work. Also crazy creek will have blue thermals to about 3000’ AGL. Blue. A secondary develops over williams around 2 pm.


    Sunday (700mb vertical) Nice wave all day, as kempton said. At 4 pm the wave extend off to the south east quite a bit, merging with a secondary from the crazy creek region. There is a nice primary and secondary over the valley too.


    The soundings seem pretty wet to this flatlander however. Williams dances with cloud layers much of the day, likely coming and going. Goat starts in a thin cloud layer which gradually builds to about 4000 feet thick at the end of the day. The main wet layer is at mountain top. There is a bulge about 16000’ that might be wet enough to make pennies. So, I guess we get lennies over the mountains and holes in the valley? But watch the cloud development.


    Sacramento forecast discussion seems to think it’s much more cloudy and rainy on Sunday
    Sunday, precipitation will begin to spread into the northern and
    Coastal mountains. A cloudy and much cooler day is forecast for
    Sunday, with chances for rainfall spreading southward into most of
    the forecast area by afternoon.

    So..Does this sound right? Do we make a big mistake missing Saturday as it rains Sunday? I can actually do both if it’s decent Saturday.

    John Cochrane

  10. #10
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    Re: Sun Nov 1: Wave?

    Saturday turned in to a nice dry wave day. Wave was easy to find from a tow to the tree farm at 7500'. Then 2-3 knots mostly with a few spots of 4+ (behind snow mountain). It got steadily better and easier to find as the day went on. On the first trip up and down I stopped a lot to stay high, on the second trip I went with no stops in much wider areas of weak lift.

    John Cochrane

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