Fly - Thursday 2-25-16

[Peter Kelly]

Looks like a semi-post frontal day might present a soaring opportunity, if your schedule allows. I can't be there due to schedule conflict, but if it pans out, tell us about your flight.This is a long range chart 700 MB, from Golden Gate, 5 days in advance.
Watch RASP for more current forecast conditions.

[Peter Kelly]

All this talk about the coming weekend and possible trips up the Mendos by Kempton has made me look some more at getting into the air, before the weekend. I still can't make it on Thursday (or the weekend), but Friday looks good. Besides, I am anxious to see the new ASG32Mi-RM. It's pretty exciting to even think about.
Just look at the WSC web page : http://www.williamssoaring.com/fleet/asg32.html

There no longer any excuse ("other than" limited finances) for pilots not to learn to be fully qualified as X-C pilots after some dual hours in this ship. This is the ultimate x-c training vehicle. OK, back to my plans....

For Friday 4 PM I see the "trof alfot" just off the coast on the UNISYS pages.
I'll leave the weekend fcst to Kempton.

RASP is now Today +2 and it gives us a guess on Fridays conditions. I'm going to take it to heart and get ready. Here's what I'm think'n:

My plan for Friday:
I can envision a launch before about 1 PM local (21z) with a quartering tailwind:



Tow towards the 20 Gap, with a release at 3,000 ft and climb in lift to over 4,000.
See the BL Max up/Down (conversion line) SW of WSC - point #1.


I expect to see alto cu, or alto stratus between 11 am and 1 PM, based on the moisture levels on the WSC sounding.


Once over 4,000 I plan to make my way to the northwest, passing east of Indian Ranch on the ridge to the east of it, with a slow climb as I go, based on the VV 850 winds:


then, when over St John slow climb in wave to a over 7 - wishfully, maybe hit 10,000.


One other consideration is the amount of cloud. The goat sounding at 2 PM (22z) shows cloud at 10,000 (700mb), but there should be a good gap, based upon the drying out (blue line moving left) above 10,000 and the increasing wind (red line on right side, leaning to the right).


Not being real patient in weak wave, I'll head home early, with a plan to land at 5:45 (sunset is now almost 6 PM). If I get high enough, I could head due east from St John towards Willows or Maxwell and hit the weak secondary (shown on the 700 VV chart) and head S or SE before landing back home.
But best to head south if I have time and extra altitude, rather than fight a head wind coming home from the E or NE.

All this based upon a RASP that is run on Wednesday morning, thus a forecast of more than 48 hours.

One thing we can be sure of about a forecast is that it WILL change.

Hopefully it will change for even better conditions. I plan to give it a go on Friday.

[Peter Kelly]

Update Thursday 10 AM

Looks good for flying tomorrow, if surface winds don't close the runway. Small shift in pressure patterns could do just that.


Fcst now says I should take a tow to 6500 at tree farm and climb in the wave. Over 18 north of snow. I'll call WSC and request the wave window to be opened at 1 PM, 2100 hours Zulu... UTC.

[RamyYanetz]

You got me excited and I started considering taking the day off so looked at the forecast. Perhaps we are not looking at the same charts or I misread them, but I see wind and climb rates too weak to sustain a glider. Also wind direction looks too southerly. Will be happy to find I am wrong so I can calibrate my forecast accordingly next time.

Ramy

[Pete (98)]

Ramy ~ I think, you are correct. I'm going to take a look at the forecasts in the morning.

[Peter Kelly]

Ramy, Pete, et.al.

You were right Ramy, as it looked good only marginally over goat from 7 to 10,000 at 10 AM charts yesterday - as I was looking at things on my phone, but it was trending in the right direction (with that approaching low) and if it improved just a bit further we would have been there. At 10 AM the fcst indicated very sustainable wave from 10,000 to over 20 between St John and Black Butte.
In any case, Noelle made the phone call 24 hours in advance to Beale and she said it was a good exercise and worth the effort to exercise the new system.
We'll look at it again this am.
As I wait for the RASP, here is the 24 hr 700 mb fcst is for 4 PM today - Friday.
Not a lot of symmetry in the pressure lines, so I can see why we are getting anomalies in the fcsts.

[Peter Kelly]

Can't do much but wait for the computers to massage the models, other than resort to looking out the window (forgive me).
Web Cam at 7:43 shows clouds approaching us from the northwest. I can almost picture the "current" 700 mb chart. It looks ominous. .

Larry, it's wonderful to have those new web cams - thanks again.

[Peter Kelly]

RASP is now available for a 9 hr fcst
Looks like no wave today over the Mendos.
I advised Noelle as such.

Inversion at 4,000 rising to 5,500 keeping winds calm at low altitudes.
Nice pocket of rising/wavy air a few miles SW of WSC
I plan to give it a go.
Flight plan calls for meandering between Arbuckle and Indian Ranch - that's about all.
Maybe get some good height out of it in spots - mostly over south edge of town over I-5.
Of course, I'm putting too much faith in the models, and I am unsure of the clouds.
We'll see.
Will report back....

[Peter Kelly]

Report:
A bit tired after two flights.
First one, very short flight, up to 3,000 no lift, then land and get a new tow.
Hook up again - go to Tree Farm, release in wave, fly over 4 hours
Flight log posted to OLC.

[RamyYanetz]

Bravo for persisting even though it didn't look promising. Great flight. When I saw the lennies over the Bay Area in the afternoon I knew that RASP significantly under estimated and I missed a good day.

Ramy