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Thread: Outlook: Feb 27-28

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Now that I have, at last, the opportunity to actually fly, I'm now watching the WX more...

    This coming weekend is interesting as Saturday looks post-frontal, but with a possible upper level low (300mb GFS):
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    that looks to enhance the lift & cu even in the sub-30-40%RH (relative humidity). It's difficult to see in this close up, but there is cross hatching, indicating OD, in the area N of the Bay area. Whether or not there actually is OD, this hints at a high cloud base for this time of year.
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    So the message is to consider this coming weekend as the first good XC weekend of the season. Short days of course, but if it tracks to this forecast, get an early start and run up the Mendos for your first trip to T15/16 this year. I'll keep commenting as we get closer.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Hamburg/Germany
    Posts
    2

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Hi Kempton,

    good to see ;-) i'll be at Williams this weekend - hopefully one of the 24' are available ! If so, i'll try definetly

    -- Martin (the one from Hamburg)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    623

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    I am also planning to fly at Williams this weekend. Looking forward for great weather.

    Ramy

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Hey Martin, glad you'll be back for some flying time with us!

    Update as of Wed eve for Saturday. The RH is in the 60-70% range along the Mendos, so likely cloud base below ridge line, but you'll be able to run along the west side of the valley:
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    Sunday is looking possibly wavy:
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    700mb 40 knots
    500mb 45 knots
    300mb 70 knots

    And..... if WE all are lucky, the new WSC ASG-32 will be at the airport, fresh from it's cross continent drive by Nick & Noelle:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    San Jose, CA
    Posts
    299

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Kemp ~ Thanks for the update. Will you be flying?

    The ASG 32 is currently just a little bit north of Fresno. It should be in WSC this evening.
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    623

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Hmm, so far Saturday looks disappointingly blue. Hoping for Sunday now...

    Ramy

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    940

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Yes, per Ramy's post, it is pooping out re: the cu on Saturday. Sticking to good lab practice and outlining where the prediction missed, my explanation is 1) the heating is not of course, as strong as say, next month and onward, and 2) overcast is predicted, 10a on the left and 1p on the right, for total cloud cover:
    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	2860 . . Click image for larger version. 

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    We've got plenty of moisture, but it's in the wrong place, it's in the upper air, not down low. So to me, yes Saturday will be blue thermals, likely hanging out at Walker up to 4-5k or so.

    Sunday is looking wavy, but the impulse is weak, so let see what the RASP says tonight.

    Pete, yes I'm planning to be up at WSC for both days, if for nothing else but to get some flight time in.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
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    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Sunday turned out to be a great day, but you had to take an early tow. I'd seeing wave on Sunday morning thinking it would be done by 10a. Turns out we had wave at altitude most of the day but it disappeared by late morning down low. OLC:
    http://www.onlinecontest.org/olc-2.0...l?dsId=4846767

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Martin Gasthuber was co-pilot. I had not flown FNX since early August, so Saturday was spent ensuring everything works, and getting current. Saturday eve, the RASP continued to show morning wave, so we planned to launch at 7:30a, but got off at 7:55a:
    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	2873 . Click image for larger version. 

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    towing to Goat where lennies were forming, releasing at 8,100ft, climbing to 14K. The view of Snow Mt:
    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	2871 and looking S from Sheet Iron, well defined lennies: Click image for larger version. 

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    Finding the path north in a west wind wave is not often available because the setup brings either too much moisture, or is too dry. This was just right:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2C...ew?usp=sharing

    Got to Yolla Bolla area and turned south going back to Goat where we waited for Pete Alexander to climb up, but the wave was too weak down low. We decided to run run back north this time lower but along a Foehn gap that was well defined:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    It's not as bad as it looks, it was very clear to the east. We kept on going and going until we found ourselves N of T15 still in wave and climb to the highest point of the day, 14,900 ft ! The is looking West with the wind coming from the SW across the T16-T15 ridge line, dropping toward Hay Peak, left to right in the image:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    and in this vid:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2C...ew?usp=sharing

    We headed back south, driving along the same route as northbound, but this time, we held 14K for 30 miles or so, then back to Snow and on down to Berryessa Dam. Almost got sunk at Capay Valley again, but nursed it to Strains and then home. 7.7 hours, 481km and the longest OLC in the US for the day. Feet got cold, but otherwise, just fabulous!
    Last edited by Kempton; 02-29-2016 at 10:14 AM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    623

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Wow! I really need to calibrate RASP for Williams wave. It sure needs different calibration than Byron wave. I only saw poor climb rate in Williams RASP, at least until yesterday evening. This makes it twice in a row that I dismiss a good wave day. Rats!

    Ramy

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    Santa Rosa
    Posts
    220

    Re: Outlook: Feb 27-28

    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    Saturday eve, the RASP continued to show morning wave, so we planned to launch at 7:30a, but got off at 7:55a:
    Kemp, Fabulous flight, thanks for sharing the photographs and videos! I can only dream of such a flight for now, but I have a question on RASP forecasts.

    What RASP forecast page shows wave information for 7 or 8am?

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