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Thread: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

  1. #1
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    Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Early May is often the best of the spring cross country season with strong, and more importantly, early thermals. This season appears no different. A setup is forming for next week with strong surface heating, good moisture, and no high aloft.


    I've been watching this for a week now and it's pretty steady, meaning the outlook from a week ago for next week hasn't changed much. A variable is yet another cutoff low approaching from the west, arriving Fri/Sat of next weekend, May 14-15. This is the 9.5 day outlook for Doc Mayes, so is very far out:
    Name:  700_May14_228hr.png
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    Will update as we get closer.

    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Kemp, looking forward for some updates. I can not see past Thursday yet...

    Ramy

  3. #3
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Sorry for the late update. We're tracking to good wx for the next few days. Peak day looks to be Friday with some OD to the north and unusually warm conditions along the Cascades:
    Name:  gfs_850_3e_May13_crop.png
Views: 108
Size:  9.6 KBFriday heating and Name:  gfs_rh_3e_May13_crop.png
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Size:  11.2 KBFriday moisture.

    Locally, Saturday looks to be post frontal with good conditions staying for Sunday. This time of year, the post-frontal day can be very good as the sun is at 80-90% of the summer solstice peak. Doc Mayes looks to be a great day for runs up to Yolla and valley soaring with cu.

    Tue & Wed of next week look to be wave days, FYI.

    For this Friday, if the forecast stays on track, Tom & I may attempt a straight-out flight to the Canadian border, about 680 miles. I've only done a dozen or so straight out flights, and this one would be quite the adventure. Friday forecast temps on the Cascades are at or near record highs. The bugs will be medium to heavy though. We shall see.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Canada ah? Isn't it like 2.5 states away? I regret I asked There goes my Friday. Hope you guys will be flying with inteach so we can follow the adventure. Who will be crewing or do you also plan to fly back?

    Ramy

  5. #5
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Yes - the Cascades look really good - Please post a picture of Mt Hood as you Whiz Past in your Schnortenzoomer. I reckon you can get at least as far as Hood River one way.

    The prognosis for O&R is not as good as the Mendocinos arent active as late as the Cascades - but still a good day for some relatively big distance.

    Good luck!!

    2T


    Quote Originally Posted by Kempton View Post
    Sorry for the late update. We're tracking to good wx for the next few days. Peak day looks to be Friday with some OD to the north and unusually warm conditions along the Cascades:
    Name:  gfs_850_3e_May13_crop.png
Views: 108
Size:  9.6 KBFriday heating and Name:  gfs_rh_3e_May13_crop.png
Views: 118
Size:  11.2 KBFriday moisture.

    Locally, Saturday looks to be post frontal with good conditions staying for Sunday. This time of year, the post-frontal day can be very good as the sun is at 80-90% of the summer solstice peak. Doc Mayes looks to be a great day for runs up to Yolla and valley soaring with cu.

    Tue & Wed of next week look to be wave days, FYI.

    For this Friday, if the forecast stays on track, Tom & I may attempt a straight-out flight to the Canadian border, about 680 miles. I've only done a dozen or so straight out flights, and this one would be quite the adventure. Friday forecast temps on the Cascades are at or near record highs. The bugs will be medium to heavy though. We shall see.

  6. #6
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Thanks Peter! I just noticed on this morning's charts that, if it holds, we could have a direct 20 knot tailwind the whole way:
    Name:  700_May13_060hr.png
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Size:  25.1 KB
    We just got off the phone with Ron Clarke, a local Arlington pilot about how it is late in the day up there. Basically, follow the clouds and stay on the high ground, knowing that a bailout is down valleys with turns in them, just like the European Alps. Ron plans to fly Friday also.

    Tom & I will arrive Thu afternoon to assemble and prep.

    Ramy, you need to take the day off and fly with us. I feel I might not have this opportunity for a few years, so I'm committing (so long as the wx holds....)
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  7. #7
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Good luck Kemp and Tom.
    As for myself, I am pretty much crewless. need to wait another year or so till my son can crew...

    Ramy

  8. #8
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    For the rest of us, it looks like a great day for an O&R task. How far north do you dare go, and still make it home into the wind...

  9. #9
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Quote Originally Posted by John Cochrane View Post
    For the rest of us, it looks like a great day for an O&R task. How far north do you dare go, and still make it home into the wind...
    Looks really good on the heights and to make it better the cu at the northern half of the Mendos look good too, but that wind will be a bear.
    Running thermal tops, it'll be about 30 kts of tailwind, on average!
    Click image for larger version. 

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Size:	38.7 KB 
ID:	3105


    From Goat TP to Trinity Alps TP it is 196 km.

    You'll be there so quickly that you'll want to go to the N end of the Marbles, another 65 km.
    Coming back to Goat that's 261 km into a stiff wind.

    I may not go even as far as Hayfork with that headwind in my light weight ASW24.
    Peter Kelly

  10. #10
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    Re: Thermal Watch: May 11-16 (includes Doc Mayes)

    Thanks Peter for the reminder, yes the tailwind will be good. We launch in 30 minutes:
    https://share.delorme.com/TomBjork
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

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