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Thread: Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    930

    Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

    The winter just doesn't go away. A nice west wind wave setup looks to be coming for Thu, June 8, all charts @0Z:
    Name:  gfs_Jun08_132_850_crop.png
Views: 281
Size:  22.2 KB with 850mb ridgeline winds only slightly off orthogonal,

    Name:  gfs_Jun08_132_700_crop.png
Views: 275
Size:  27.5 KB 700mb chart showing good moisture for widespread lennies,

    Name:  gfs_Jun08_132_500_crop.png
Views: 310
Size:  20.1 KBideal 40-50 knot 500mb winds so cross wind xc speeds are good,

    Name:  gfs_Jun08_132_10m_crop.png
Views: 252
Size:  21.2 KB and precip is 0.1' or less on most of the route.

    What's tantalizing is the possibility for a 1500km OLC zig zag flight as there's 14.9 hours of daylight. Will post more as we get closer.
    Last edited by Kempton; 06-04-2017 at 08:37 AM.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    930

    Re: Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

    As of Tue morn, Thu is too wet, so no attempt for me. Normally the post frontal day, Friday, is not a wave day, because you're on the back side of the front, normally with decreasing winds and unstable air, but the winds are building on Fri, so it could be a wave day, like from 10a-8p. The wind direction & speed are nice in that period:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Jun9_700mb_8aWindyt.png 
Views:	99 
Size:	506.4 KB 
ID:	3843 8a, 700mb

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Jun9_700mb_8pWindyt.jpg 
Views:	98 
Size:	43.0 KB 
ID:	38448p, 700mb

    What will make this work is a shallow stable layer, and that’s pretty tough to judge right now, but we’ll see on tonight’s RASP run.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    930

    Re: Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

    And the jet stream energy is stronger in our area on Fri v Thu:
    Name:  gfs_300_3e_Jun09.gif
Views: 205
Size:  8.5 KB 300mb Fri 4p, vs. Name:  gfs_300_60h_Jun08.gif
Views: 216
Size:  9.1 KB 300mb Thu 4p
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Menlo Park, CA
    Posts
    930

    Re: Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

    With no RASP for Friday, I'm guessing that it'll be a mix of cu & wave. If the RASP run tonight shows properly, we'll know more. The weekend looks like a valley day both days.
    Kemp
    ASH-25 (FNX)

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    San Jose, CA
    Posts
    298

    Re: Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

    According to SkySight.io (which uses the Dr. Jack RASP set up) shows this weekend as valley days.

    SkySight.io output for Friday which looks like a fine soaring day:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	Fri June 9.jpg 
Views:	126 
Size:	146.7 KB 
ID:	3847
    Pete Alexander -- 98

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Menlo Park CA
    Posts
    296

    Re: Thu Jun 8 Wave Watch

    The new RASP run shows nicely. Friday looks like a really nice thermal day, with maybe wave on top here and there. A bit of west wind, but a nice convergence and great sounding over williams in the valley.

    John Cochrane

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